Let’s revisit those ‘08 NL Central predictions I so courageously laid out for y’all the other day:

1. St. Louis
2. Cincinnati
3. Chicago
4. Milwaukee
5. Houston
6. Pittsburgh

One thing you’ll soon learn about me is that I’m generally a pessimist when it comes to most things (I call it being a realist, but whatever), sports being no exception.  But I’m also quite proud of my Fanhood, and therefore force myself to be eternally optimistic at the beginning of every season (being a loyal St. Louis Rams fan kind of forces a guy to be like that…man, we suck).  On top of that, I went into this blog knowing I would have be THE Cardinals apologist and defender in blog dominated by Astros fans, so I couldn’t resist the desire to make a splash and fire the first shot because I know full well what’s coming from you guys all season long.  But I’m going to gladly take that ball and run with it because most of all, I LOVE talkin’ baseball with other knowledgeable fans, especially fellow NL Central followers.  I think we’re all going to have a great love/hate relationship going on here.  No doubt I’ll have a pro-Cardinals twist going on, but I imagine most of the time you’ll find I calls ‘em as I sees ‘em with a very level head.  And I know the first time I hit you with a take like “Kyle Lohse could be a steal for us”/”Troy Glaus isn’t a total pussy,” you’ll remind me how totally wrong I am.  All that being said, I give you my “real” ‘08 NL Central predictions:

1. Cincinnati (87-75)

Like some of the other so-called experts, I see these guys as a team on the rise.  They have some guys that have played together a while and seemed poised to make a run.  I think Dunn/Griffey give them 70 combined HRs again, Corey Patterson actually has a decent year in CF (if not, prospect Bruce is waiting for his job), Edwin Encarnacion has somewhat of a breakout year at 3B, and they continue to get great play up the middle from Phillips and Gonzalez.  But as we all know, it’s their improved pitching that’s put them back on the map–Harang is solid, Arroyo should bounce back, and everyone seems eager to see if Volquez and Cueto can build on their outstanding Spring Training numbers.  I think finally having a real closer for the 9th inning may be the thing that improves this club the most–they may have overpaid for Francisco Cordero to get him, but given their struggles in the 9th inning the past few years, I say it’s going to prove to be money well spent (while at the same time hurting Milwaukee).  Once again, Dusty Baker seems to land at the right time and get some undeserved credit because this team is in a great position right now.

2. Chicago (83-79)

I think the pundits out there saying it’s finally their time to win a championship are crazy, but there’s just too much offensive firepower there for them to not finish second in this division.  A great blend of proven hitters and up-and-coming offensive talent.  I’m not real big on their pitching–I think after Zambrano there’s not much to be excited about (Hill/Lilly/Dempster?  Woo friggin’ hoo.)  Wood is going to flop as the closer, just as he has flopped at life following his rookie campaign.  I think they’ll finish around .500 and not even be in real contention for the Wild Card (which is probably headed to the NL East runner-up).

3. St. Louis (81-81)

Saying they have a shot at the division is ludicrous, no doubt about that.  .500 might even be unreachable with our starting pitching.  But I really do believe that all of this talk of 5th place or even finishing off the plank behind the Pirates is just dead wrong.  Why?  I really think we have the best bullpen in the division–Milwaukee should, but GagMe was a waste of money and losing Cordero is going to hurt.  Yes, the starting pitching sucks–but it pretty much does all throughout this division.  I realize to even finish in third is going to require getting something out of Mulder or Carpenter on down the road, which is certainly no sure thing.

I think our offense, while certainly not on par with the Cubbies, Reds, or even the Astros, is going to be a whole lot better than last year–I’m sold on Ankiel having a great year (25-30HR/90RBI) and Skip Schumaker actually turning out to be a huge upgrade over Eckstein leading off.  Yes, we all know Troy Glaus is a big ol’ flappin’ pussy.  But after barely being able to stomach watching Scott Rolen’s sorry ass last year, I think my boy Troy outproduces The Whiner offensively–even if he only plays 130 games.  There’s no way Adam Kennedy can play worse than he did last year, so hopefully 2B is a slight improvement as well.  I think hope Pujols can play through all this elbow bidness and put up his regular MVP-type numbers and carry us. 

4. Milwaukee (76-86)

This team should’ve made the playoffs last year.  While many think they’re a team on the verge–kind of like those young Cleveland Indians the last few years–I think they missed their shot and are going to be a disappointment this year.  Fielder is certainly a legitmate masher who will produce.  Braun?  Great young hitter, but I see a Ryan Zimmerman type sophomore year for him.  I’ll never be sold on Hardy/Weeks, and Corey Hart was a one-year wonder.  Like with most teams, it comes down to pitching, and while the Brew Crew seems to have more than others–Sheets will probably have a great year since he’ll be leaving town in ‘09–Suppan and Bush don’t do much for me behind him.  Parra/Gallardo/Villanueva?  Maybe one of them will emerge, but certainly not all three.  Like I mentioned before, their bullpen won’t come close to matching what it did last year.  I expect a huge step back for Yost’s boys and predict him to be the first manager fired in ‘08.

5. Astros (75-87)

If all the veterans stayed healthy, this team could hit just enough to stay in contention for a while.  But with everyone approaching 35 years old, I’m just afraid there’ll be a few too many trips to the DL for the ‘Stros to hang.  This team seems to have let itself become a lot like those late 90s Orioles teams in that it got real old real soon after a nice string of playoff appearances, but was forced to stick it out for a couple of extra years because of so many bloated long-term contracts.  The starting pitching?  Yikes.  Not that the Cards are one bit better, but when Chacon is your #4 starter, you have some serious issues. 

I do like that Hunter Pence fella, however.  I actually hope he goes 30/30 for you guys.  I also hope Carlos Lee chokes on a fish taco.

6. Pirates (62-100)

These guys are shitty.  Not much else to say.  Both the Cards or Astros could sure use an Ian Snell, huh?

Because of my dedication to our new blog, I decided to take my first-ever trip to H-Town to see your beloved Astros in person and do a little scouting.  Ok, I lie, I was actually in town to help our beloved Matthew haul the ridiculously large BBQ smoker he was about to purchase in Humble on Sunday morning–we just lucked out by having the Tigers and ‘Stros in town for an exhibition game at Minute Maid right as we rolled in.  A few thoughts about the trip, the game, and the place formerly known as Enron Field:

1. I hadn’t seen a whole lot of Texas in any of my many wild roadtrips over the years; Dallas had been my primary exposure to the state.  So, as you might expect, I didn’t care too much for your “country” based on those experiences.  That said, I must admit, I really liked Houston.  The downtown area was really nice and was surprisingly easy to navigate through (I had always heard awful things about the traffic there, but found it to be much better than the Dallas area…seemed to be far fewer retarded people cruisin’ around).  I also was kind of amazed by how clean the downtown was and how little rif-raf there seemed to be on the streets.  The people were generally very friendly, though you certainly can’t ever drive out of Dumb People Nation no matter how far you’re willing to go (the folks sitting in the Crawford Boxes being the prime example in this case).  I couldn’t believe how thick the humidity already was considering it was just in the 70s and not even April 1.  Y’all must suffer through your summers mightily.  And this is coming from someone used to the ungodly humid summers the Natural State serves up every year.

2. No doubt about it, Minute Maid Park is a gem.  Count Busch Stadium II, Comerica Park, Coors Field, and The Ballpark in Arlington (or whatever they’re calling it now) as the “new” ballparks I had previously been to–MMP ranks right up there with any of ‘em.  Because the place was only about half full for a game-that-didn’t-count, we got to move around every couple of innings and managed to spend time in the RF area (where Pence was getting all sorts of love), the Crawford Boxes (seriously, they might as well be called the “Short Bus Boxes” judging by the people we saw there), and just a few rows directly behind home plate.  That LF porch is just as ridiculous as it looks on TV.  I really felt like I could give Miggy Cabrera a good slap on the ass from where we were sitting.  RF kind of sucks because you can’t see the giant scoreboard, but there really wasn’t too bad of a view anywhere in the park.  Fantastic atmosphere to watch a game and great amenities everywhere you looked.  Being that it was my first experience in a closed-roof stadium, the whole feeling like I was watching baseball in a large gymnasium was a little odd, but I’m sure it’s great when the dog days of summer roll around.

3. I can see why you guys are so big on Hunter Pence.  His acknowledgement of the RF fans after his homer was really cool.  Y’all keep it real with your homegrown Texans and I’ve always appreciated that.

4. Shawn Chacon wearing #1 as a pitcher REALLY pissed me off.  Like being one of the first flat-billed sideways cap guys wasn’t bad enough.  That guy can go to hell.

5. Maybe Miguel Tejada has one more 30HR season in him after all. 

6. Carlos Lee is even fatter in person.  Berkman seemed less fat.  Both run like a brontosaurus.  Wow. 

7. I wish Carlos Guillen was my fantasy shortstop.  That guy is one professional hitter.

8. Goode Co.’s BBQ is pretty overrated.  The sausage was great, the ribs were ok, and the brisket tasted like pot roast and should’ve come with boiled potatoes and carrots.

9. I still couldn’t believe Texas was getting to play Memphis in Houston.  I didn’t see much fanfare on the streets for having the tourney come to town.  No surprise on the outcome of the game, of course.

10. Getting to meet fellow blogger Tim was great–that’s one swell fella.  Using “Tim-isms” on my wife at home wasn’t the best idea, however.  I damn near had to camp out on the couch last night.  The dude is kind of my hero now.  Sorry, Matt.

11. Seriously, Matt’s BBQ smoker–all 14 feet of it–ridiculous.  And ridiculously awesome.

Definitely a great little baseball/BBQ roadtrip!  I still hate your Astros, but I love your city and now have a real point of reference.

Creating a placeholder thread for Opening Day haps.  I’ll be at a local bar here in Austin with some friends and beer.  Drop me a line if you are interested in joining.  My email is my user name (the full thing) @gmail.com.

So, I decided to take a different route with this after Part I, the offense. There’s a ton to look at, and I want to be as exhaustive (boring) as possible. Now, I’ll take a look at the pitching. You’ll find your barf bag in the seat back in front of you. There are no emergency exits.

Now that “Got bomb?” Williams has been sliced off the roster, we actually look better…which is sad. Let’s start with the good news: Roy Oswalt. And is there a more steady pitcher in the majors than Oswalt? I would argue long and hard (heheheh, long….hard…heheheheh) that the answer is no. He might be 31 this year, and he might not have the giddyup on his fastball he once did, but he’s the working definition of ruthlessly efficient. He’s got some groinal issues (as does most of the WTP staff), but he’ll be good for 33 above-average starts. Not bad for a short, right handed pitcher.

That ends the good news.

Jose Valverde is ranked second for VORP for the Astros staff by PECOTA. The entire staff. The closer. Oh, we are so screwed. Anyway, Wade acquired Valverde because he comes with that shiny closer smell, but we gave up a shitload of schwag to do so. Valverde saved 47 games last year, but his pitching pattern reminds me of Bob Knepper: one good year, one bad year, one good year, one bad year, and so on. That’s not to say he’ll be bad this year, but I don’t trust pitchers like this any farther than I can throw them (and Valverde is a serious fat ass). I have this suspicion that Valverde will be Wade’s legacy.

Next is Oscar Villareal, who is the best acquisition we made in off-season. He’s bounced back well from a serious abuse episode with the D-backs, and he could easily be the second best pitcher on the team next year. If he pitches better than he has in the spring. But, remember, this dude is a middle reliever.

Jeez, I am three pitchers in and ready to down a gallon of bleach. Speaking of bleach, next up is Wandy. There were some seriously intriguing, yet confusing, numbers from Wandy last year. His K-rate spiked, which is a fantastic indicator, but I can’t figure out why. He did look better, especially with his curve and change. If his numbers are for real, then he’ll beat his PECOTA numbers, but that’s a big if. Nevertheless, he showed a ton of improvement in 2007.

So, that’s two starters and two relievers. There are eight more guys to go, but I can’t do it. The rest that made the 25-man roster are Shawn Chacon (bombastic!), Brandon Backe (not a joke), Dave “Molotov cocktail” Borkowski, Doug Brocail and his 13.00 ERA in the spring, Geoff “ROOGY” Geary, Chris Sampson (and his 9+ spring ERA), Brian “Scuffy” Moehler (nuf ced), and Rule V pickup Wesley Wright.

Excluding Oswalt, our pitchers were good for a 7.16 ERA and a 7.72 RA in the spring, and we don’t train in Arizona. That, my friends, wouldn’t even make the 1930 Phillies proud.

This might be the worst pitching staff, including Oswalt, in my lifetime. We are that bad. Right now, PECOTA has us giving up 813 runs, but I think that total could be closer to 900 than not. I think the pitching is truly that bad, and when you consider that we have nothing on the farm to call up, it could get even uglier.

In the next instalment, I’ll look at our farm and intangibles.

Edit: Thanks to the Crawfish Boxes for info on the 25-man roster. Sorry for the dis the first time around.

One nominee for our WTP Whipping Boy has been released.

Woody Williams, the flammable starter, was evidently undone by the continuous, extreme whiplash and was released by my beloved Astros today. At least this hangover of Tim Purpura’s gross incompetence will cost us $6.5MM this year thanks to the idiotic contract Williams signed last year.

This was one of those signings that was trouble from the start: a flyball pitcher with homerun tendencies, turning 41, and obviously losing his stuff, starting half his games in the Juice Box. I gotta admit that that strategy’s nothing if not optimistic. In just 160 IP in the Juice Box, Woody bonered up 32 HRs, an almost Ken Dixon type pace.

Fortunately, the Stros have a well-stocked farm system of replacement possibilities who can step in for Woody. What? It’s not 1991?

Dammit.

I know you’ve all been waiting anxiously.  Or at least I’ll tell myself that.  Reasoning, analysis, and defending myself from the beating I’m going to take from some of you for placing the Astros 5th in a 6-team divison in my next post.

So, without further ado:

—–

*denotes Wild Card

National League

West
1. Arizona
2. Colorado
3. Los Angeles
4. San Diego
5. San Francisco

Central
1. St. Louis
2. Cincinnati
3. Chicago
4. Milwaukee
5. Houston
6. Pittsburgh

East
1. New York
2. Philadelphia*
3. Atlanta
4. Florida
5. Washington

NLDS: New York over St. Louis; Philadelphia over Arizona

NLCS: New York over Philadelphia

NL MVP: Wright, NYM
NL Cy: Santana, NYM
NL ROY: Headley, SD
NL MOY: Baker, CIN
NL Comeback: Martinez, NYM
NL Bat Champ: Utley, PHI

American League

West
1. Oakland
2. Los Angeles
3. Seattle
4. Texas

Central
1. Detroit
2. Cleveland*
3. Minnesota
4. Kansas City
5. Chicago

East
1. New York
2. Boston
3. Tampa Bay
4. Toronto
5. Baltimore

ALDS: Detroit over Oakland; New York over Cleveland

ALCS: Detroit over New York

AL MVP: Martinez, CLE
AL Cy: Harden, OAK
AL ROY: Longoria, TB
AL MOY: Geren, OAK
AL Comeback: Percival, TB
AL Bat Champ: Polanco, DET

WORLD SERIES
New York over Detroit in 7

WSMVP: Reyes, NYM

The super fantastic Replacement Level Yankees Weblog had a little fun with Diamond Mind Baseball over the last couple of weeks, coming up with forecast standing based off individual players’ forecast statistics. Not dissing on ZiPs or THT or any of the others, I’m going to focus on the results using PECOTA (due to the fact that PECOTA is behind their subscriber firewall, I will be talking a bit in generalities instead of specifics. So why PECOTA? Because it’s the best.).

Running 1000 games in the simulation using PECOTA, the Astros wind up with a 74-88 record, or one game better than the lowly Pirates and the crappily managed Cardinals. And that, sadly, sounds about right.

So, what looks good for the Stros? Even though the team is starting to look like a beer-league softball team on offense, the runs for number comes out to only 744, which would be deep into the lower half of the NL if that comes true. Berkman should be his usual, solid self, but he’s turning 32 this year, and his old player skills - which tend to not age well - worry me deeply. His OPS is being forecast at 900, which definitely doesn’t suck, but Berkman’s lifetime OPS is 971. In other words, we have seen the best Berkman has to offer.

Next is Miguel Tejada. For now, I’ll forgo the argument that this was an asinine trade made by a total dumbass of a GM. Instead, I’ll focus on the forecast. PECOTA has him getting 563 PAs, which I don’t think he’ll come close to meeting. He’s 32 if you believe the birth certificate, and he is simply no longer capable of playing SS on a day-to-day basis, conveniently forgetting that he has no better than fall-down range at this point. With a PECOTA forecast OPS of 800, he’ll be slightly above-average offensively, but whatever he adds with the bat he’s likely to give back with the glove.

Hunter Pence is forecast as the third best Stro in terms of VORP. Until he learns to walk at the break-even 10% rate, I think he will struggle offensively. He doesn’t have a ton of power, yet, though the park will help. Personally, I think his career path is Eric Byrnes.

Finally, we get to the super-mega-huge contracted Carlos Lee. He’ll continue to do his best imitation of a statue in LF, but he’ll also hit the ball. PECOTA has never much liked Lee, in large part because of Lee’s large build, so one could take the over on the projected 850 OPS. Still, he’s already the third player listed here who’s 32, but plays and looks a helluva lot older than that. It’s likely that one of Berkman, Lee, or Tejada will lose significant playing time this year. My bet’s on Tejada.

And then, by VORP, it’s…JR Towles? First of all, I’d be shocked if he gets 497 PAs as is being forecast. Coop will get Ausmus more PT than 170 PAs, no matter how detrimental it is to the team. And if Towles struggles in the least? Ausmus will be back to full-time status in a blink.

For some reason, Nate hasn’t adjusted the Stros lineup to have Michael Bourn in CF over Reggie Abercrombie, but I think we’d be lucky to get Abercrombie-type production from Bourn. Bourn couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag. Think Willy Tavares without the power, and you have Bourn. He’ll need to do a ton with the glove to prove any worth to the team. Again, I’m not optimistic he can do this.

Ty Wiggington? Why? Which god(ess) did I offend so horribly to get Ty Wiggington on the team? Below average offensively and defensively, there is probably no player who better identifies the Tim Purpura error (sic) than Wiggington. Think half a David Wright, and that’s Wiggington. I so hate.

I’ll end with this guy, with this idiotic, moronic signing: Kaz Matsui. Most GMs would’ve looked at the 32-year old (that damn age again!) Matsui and thought, wait a minute, this guy has a 650 OPS everywhere but Coors Field. He sucks pretty badly. But Ed Wade is no such negative ninny! Wade saw Matsui’s 864 OPS at Curs and thought to himself, “Holy shit! He’s a superstar!” That’s the wisdom of seeing the glass half full…when it’s really just the hardened coffee at the bottom of the mug that can’t be scrubbed off anymore. The good news it that there’s no way Matsui gets more than 500 PAs. The bad news is that he’s still considered the starter. And we gave up on Chris Burke for this.

That’s enough. I can’t take anymore. But, for those of you who think that this will be a high-powered offense, I hope you’ll reconsider. This is a poor offense, slow except for Bourn, Matsui, and Pence, and horribly defensively, especially on the left side.

For Part II, I’ll look at the pitchers.  Grab the bleach.

As a companion post to the one at DGDB&D, I am presenting some old school Astros fight songs for your listening pleasure.

I collected all of these at Astros games in the 1970s and 80s, and I feel like the last two, especially, symbolize the disco era to its fullest. The quality is pretty piss poor, to which I apologize, but I hope to get my hands on a newer turntable to re-rip these in the future.

Two of these songs are by the 80s era disco icon Sue Laws. In that era of swinging and sex, I always imagined her singing the national anthem, taking part in a warm-up gang bang, singing the 7th inning stretch, and the finishing her night on a pile of naked bodies. Perhaps there was a little projection going on with that, but I’ll leave that to you Freudian people.

Enjoy!

Go Go Astros! - Mack Hayes
Vamos Vamos Astros! - Mack Hayes
Houston’s Gone Banastros - Sue Laws
World Series Disco - Sue Laws

I {heart} you all,

bfd

PS: As with the Oilers songs, I expect the Chron to steal these and take the credit for them. That’s how they roll, peeps.

Does baseball turn you on? Does reading the ramblings of a bunch of grumpy fans excite you? Then stay tuned.