Posted by bigfatdrunk on March 29, 2008

Fun with PECOTA - Part II - the “pitching”

So, I decided to take a different route with this after Part I, the offense. There’s a ton to look at, and I want to be as exhaustive (boring) as possible. Now, I’ll take a look at the pitching. You’ll find your barf bag in the seat back in front of you. There are no emergency exits.

Now that “Got bomb?” Williams has been sliced off the roster, we actually look better…which is sad. Let’s start with the good news: Roy Oswalt. And is there a more steady pitcher in the majors than Oswalt? I would argue long and hard (heheheh, long….hard…heheheheh) that the answer is no. He might be 31 this year, and he might not have the giddyup on his fastball he once did, but he’s the working definition of ruthlessly efficient. He’s got some groinal issues (as does most of the WTP staff), but he’ll be good for 33 above-average starts. Not bad for a short, right handed pitcher.

That ends the good news.

Jose Valverde is ranked second for VORP for the Astros staff by PECOTA. The entire staff. The closer. Oh, we are so screwed. Anyway, Wade acquired Valverde because he comes with that shiny closer smell, but we gave up a shitload of schwag to do so. Valverde saved 47 games last year, but his pitching pattern reminds me of Bob Knepper: one good year, one bad year, one good year, one bad year, and so on. That’s not to say he’ll be bad this year, but I don’t trust pitchers like this any farther than I can throw them (and Valverde is a serious fat ass). I have this suspicion that Valverde will be Wade’s legacy.

Next is Oscar Villareal, who is the best acquisition we made in off-season. He’s bounced back well from a serious abuse episode with the D-backs, and he could easily be the second best pitcher on the team next year. If he pitches better than he has in the spring. But, remember, this dude is a middle reliever.

Jeez, I am three pitchers in and ready to down a gallon of bleach. Speaking of bleach, next up is Wandy. There were some seriously intriguing, yet confusing, numbers from Wandy last year. His K-rate spiked, which is a fantastic indicator, but I can’t figure out why. He did look better, especially with his curve and change. If his numbers are for real, then he’ll beat his PECOTA numbers, but that’s a big if. Nevertheless, he showed a ton of improvement in 2007.

So, that’s two starters and two relievers. There are eight more guys to go, but I can’t do it. The rest that made the 25-man roster are Shawn Chacon (bombastic!), Brandon Backe (not a joke), Dave “Molotov cocktail” Borkowski, Doug Brocail and his 13.00 ERA in the spring, Geoff “ROOGY” Geary, Chris Sampson (and his 9+ spring ERA), Brian “Scuffy” Moehler (nuf ced), and Rule V pickup Wesley Wright.

Excluding Oswalt, our pitchers were good for a 7.16 ERA and a 7.72 RA in the spring, and we don’t train in Arizona. That, my friends, wouldn’t even make the 1930 Phillies proud.

This might be the worst pitching staff, including Oswalt, in my lifetime. We are that bad. Right now, PECOTA has us giving up 813 runs, but I think that total could be closer to 900 than not. I think the pitching is truly that bad, and when you consider that we have nothing on the farm to call up, it could get even uglier.

In the next instalment, I’ll look at our farm and intangibles.

Edit: Thanks to the Crawfish Boxes for info on the 25-man roster. Sorry for the dis the first time around.

Posted under 2008 Season, Astros, Ed Wade hurts my brain, Purpura is Latin for dumbass, Sucky pitching

7 Responses to “Fun with PECOTA - Part II - the “pitching””

  1. We’re in trouble. We’re in big trouble. If I go to a game this season and sit in the left field boxes, I’m wearing riot gear.

  2. Ted Striker Says:

    Backe’s performance is hard to predict. He could get the post-Tommy John bump and throw 200 innings, or he could be Mark Prior.

    I’m just glad to have his fire back on the mound, not just in the dugout.

  3. Displaced Texan Says:

    So basically you’re writing from best to worst. Because as bad as the pitching is, the farm system is worse.

    Is it too early to fire Ed Wade? I honestly believe we are destined for 5-10 years of mediocrity if we don’t get rid of him now. Look at his moves. He mortgaged the farm (what was left of it) to bring in a combination of washouts he drafted (Bourn) to just comical players (Matsui).

    I have never been as disillusioned with a season as I am right now.

  4. The bullpen doesn’t worry me. For the record, Brocail is coming off of a 3.05 ERA over 76 IP season. And he’s not just a fly-ball pitcher who benefited from Petco park; his road ERA last year was well under 2.00. He also historically pitches poorly in spring.

    Geary and Villareal are both historically mediocre at worst. And relief pitchers are really year-to-year anyways; you never know when a guy might step it up (or tank completely).

    As for the starting pitching, it’s not so bad to have Backe (assuming he can stay healthy) and Wandy in the rotation. The problem is that they are 3 and 5 or 4 and 5 pitchers who are #2 and #3 in our rotation. And of course, our #4 and #5 wouldn’t crack another starting rotation in the league.

    The most depressing part of it though is that we don’t have a single starting pitcher with any potential. I think Wandy will improve, but he’s not going to cut his ERA in half any time soon. Sampson is a 30 year-old career minor-leaguer with mediocre-at-best stuff. Chacon is on his last legs. And Backe, while he probably has the most potential of all our guys, isn’t exactly young either.

    Oh, where art thou, Buchholz and Hirsh?

  5. Yeah, that Jennings trade gets better every day. Pretty much 90% of Astro fans knew it was a bad move at the time - not just after the deal played itself out in such tragic fashion. How is it that dedicated AND casual fans knew how bad the Jennings deal was at the time, but the guys who get paid big bucks to make the decisions had no idea?

    See also - the Ahman Green signing. :|

  6. new theme for the Astros’ 2008 season:

    Roy O, Backe and pray for 3 days of rain!

  7. Personally, I don’t know how much we can rely on Backe, either.

    His career high IP is 149, and he’s coming off TJ (as Striker mentioned). His K rate was already falling to the 4.5K/9 IP threshold, and no pitcher since the 30s has been successful at that low of a rate. Regardless of all that, he’s still got a lifetime 1.46 WHIP.

    In the spring, he had a 1.55 WHIP with a 5.59 ERA. Slice half a run off the ERA, and I think that should be our expectation level for him.

    So perhaps, Dave, it should be “Oswalt and DUCK!”