First, major {hugs} to Matt for the new design. If I wasn’t a married, straight man, I would so fall in love with him.

This week’s edition of Rights and Wrongs will be the last to solely look at the year as a whole. I figure, three weeks in, it’s time to look at things at a micro view from here on out. That said, let’s hit that shit!!!!

Offense:

Ummmm, holy shit? Towles is hitting for major power, Berkman has been good, and Tejada still thinks he’s 25 instead of 104 years old. Yet, Aaron Cook can kick our ass? One of my biggest worries is that Pence and Bourn have whiff rates that would make Dave Kingman blush.

My biggest worry, however, is that (before today’s game) your Houston Astros are dead last in OBP. Last. Done. Dead. As a baseball stat geek, it’s important to know why that’s, ummmmmm, important. Here’s the deal: OPS should be 1.6 OPS + 1 SLG. The reason is that there is really only one fixed variable in baseball, and that is there are only three outs per inning. That’s what makes not making outs so important. And, right now, we are making a shitload of outs.

We are slugging like mad, at least, as we clock in almost in the middle there (considering our batting average, that’s quite a feat).  Until we start seeing more pitches and drawing more walks, the offense will under-perform.

Note: I started this post last (Sunday) night, but I was too exhausted to complete the sucker.  This is where I stopped, so I am going to cheat a bit going forward.

Pitching:

Now, I predict Roy will have a nicely solid start against the Padres Monday night, going seven innings with 6 Ks.  OK, maybe that’s too much cheating.  Anyway, it’s nice to have you back, Roy.  You were sorely missed.

Wandy?  Is that you?  He has been a total badass this year, but, sadly, he’ll be sitting out the next couple of weeks with a….strained groin.  The only words I hate typing more than “strained groin” are “anal fissures.”  Well, the latter is actually kinda fun.  I mean, how often do you get to type “anal” in a baseball blog that’s not about Barry Bonds?

Shawn Chacon has been on fire, as well.  But, he scares me.  His current BA against is .220 while his career mark is .259, and he’s been at .272 and .265 the last two seasons.  We can expect regression to the mean here.  If he can cut back on his walks, though, he could make up for the BA against rate hike.  Still, a pleasant surprise.

All 41 years of Doug Brocail is having a career year.  He picked up a save earlier in the week, but he’s far more valuable in his current role than he his collecting those shiny round objects known as saves.  My biggest worry, and you’ve heard this before, is that he’s on a pace to pitch in 80+ games.  We’re starting to move past the whole small sample size factor on this, and at 41 yo, this pace is simply untenable.

Geoff Geary (wha???) and Wesley Wright have both done yeoman’s work in middle relief.  Wright may turn out to be the best Rule V pickup this year.  With a little more control, he really could be something special.

Dave Borkowski, Brandon Backe, Brian “Scuffy” Moehler, and Chris Sampson all have WHIPs above 1.7.  Moehler and Sampson are scary, Backe is basically rehabbing from Tommy John surgery in the majors, and, I swear, Borkowski means “pour gasoline on fire” in Polish.

Jose Valverde?  Watching him pitch reminds me of this:

(Stolen without permission from this awesome post from USS Mariner).

The hometown heroes are 9-12 after this evening’s drubbing of the Pa-dregs.  That’s a pace for a 69-93 record.  I still believe that our season hinges on Roy’s health: tonight’s start gives the much used pen a needed rest.  I’m worried about the workload the pen is having to take.

And that’s all I’ve got to say about that.  HAPPY ANAL FISSURES TO YOU ALL!!!

Posted under 2008 Season, Astros, Kaz Matsui gives me anal fissures, Rights and Wrongs, RoyO