Remember when I wrote this post and everybody thought I was being too harsh on the offense? Well…

Name, Projected OPS, Reality, +/- OPS (+ is good)

Michael Bourn, 700, 577, -123

Carlos Lee, 849, 794, -55

Miguel Tejada, 796, 814, +18

Kaz Matsui, 682, 679, -3

Ty Wiggington, 813, 800, -13

Brad Ausmus, 597, 447, -150

Hunter Pence, 852, 808, -44

Lance Berkman, 901, 1.219, +318

This isn’t everybody, but we can draw two fairly plausible conclusions:

1. PECOTA has been pretty dead-on-balls accurate.

2. Puma = God.

This little exercise was just for fun. I’ll be re-visiting this topic a couple of times over the course of the season.

Edit: Fixed my error (h/t Lee), and changed the title to better reflect article content.

5/29: Brad Ausmus. Brad. Fucking. Ausmus. Why?

Also, Rick Ankiel’s incredibly accurate throws to the bases remind me of why he switched to the OF in the first place. I just hope the Cardinal mascot stays far away from the field when the Cards are on D.

Quick Preview 5/30: The good guys have Brandon Backe on the mound tonight against the Milwaukee Rampaging Alcoholics. Backe has been awesome in May, going 3-2 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Most importantly, and the key to his success, has been much improved control along with an increase in his K rate. Backe has 26 Ks in 31.1 May innings, and only 10 BBs in that time. In his last three starts, he’s given up only 2 BB in his last 19.2 IP (with 14 K). If there’s one big concern, it’s Backe’s long-ball tendencies as he has given up 11 HR in 11 starts, and the Alcoholics are 10th in the majors in dongs. And I got to type “dong.”

Manny Parra, who threw a perfect game against Round Rock last year, takes the mound for the Alcoholics. He’s got nasty stuff, but the big lefty has struggled against righties this year to the tune of a 1.86 WHIP and .310 BAA. Considering the Stros are right-handed heavy, it’s a good matchup.

And if Coop hides Ausmus’ uniform so that he can’t take the field, then all the better.

It was another above-.500 week for the hometown heroes, but the first thing that catches your eye is:

Runs Scored:  30

Runs Against: 40

Sure, most of that differential was Sunday’s blowout craptacular, but that’s still a ton of runs to give up in a single week.

Good news first:

Carlos Lee: 12 RBI in 25 ABs on the week?  That’s like *mumble to self for a moment* a whole shitload of RBI for one week.  Puma deserves man-crush status, and there’s been a lot of love for Pence and Matsui, but Lee has been dead-on tough all year.  RBI is a team stat, but driving in 12 out of 30 runs for the week is uh-mazing.

Puma: 880 OPS on the week, but five runs scored.  He’s starting to come down from his high, but he’s still playing extremely well (though, and is it me?, or is his defense at first sometimes adventurous?).

Hunter Pence: Three bombs and five runs.  He’s recovering from his first month slump well.

Michael Bourn: An 800 OPS?  Five SBs with no caught stealing?  But even with this week, he had only one BB with seven strikeouts.

 Ty Wiggington?:  Seriously?  Is that six doubles and nine hits in just 17 ABs?  It did seem like he was on 2nd most of the week.

Brandon Backe: His best season is coming after a TJ reconstruction?  Should we goon him up over the winter (kidding!)?

Chris Sampson: He hates him some Cubs, but he got lit up in his second start of the week.  His ERA is 6.04, and he’s only striking out 4.5/9IP. We need to do something about his slot, and quickly.

Shawn Chacon: Wow, what can you say?  He hates the Cubs more than Sampson.  His WHIP and ERA don’t match up well, but I am truly surprised Chacon has been this effective after being lit up like a Christmas tree for most of his career.

Scuffy Moehler???: And then you get two nice starts from Scuffy.  It was a good week to be a Stro starting pitcher.

Wait a minute!  We gave up almost 6 runs a game over the week.  What happened?

The bad:

Roy: Another rough start, giving him 22 HA in just 12 IP in his last two starts…which look a lot like his first couple of weeks of the season.  It’s the hits that worry me the most, which is adding to an atrocious WHIP.  I’m still worried about his health, whether it’s just his hip (last week), his groin (chronic), or something different.

Wesley Wright: Wright in April: 4.15 ERA, 5 BB and 11 K in 8.2 IP.  In May?  7 BB and 3(!) K in 9 IP.  He pitched so well in April that it was hard to remember he’s a Rule V pick, but he has been struggling pretty badly.  In addition, even as bad as his numbers are belie the fact that he’s missing spots.

Dave “Molotov Cocktail”  Borkowski and Fernando”Boom Boom” Nieve: I think it’s safe to say that Nieve needs more seasoning, and Borkowski is done.

Miggy Tejada: 680 OPS.  His power is disappearing, and he still doesn’t draw walks.

Kaz Matsui: 427 OPS, but the silver lining is that he drew four walks.  His huge uptick in walks has kept him valuable.  We need him to sustain.

JR Towles and Brad Ausmus: Dear Mr. Coop, Please either play Towles or send him to AAA.  Either way, keep Ausmus the fuck off the field.  Thank you for your patronage.

Summary:

One of the biggest knocks against Ed Wade when he was hired was that he didn’t know how to piece together a bullpen, and that problem is glowing loudly for the 2008 Astros.  The bullpen is pathetic except for Doug Brocail and Jose Valverde.  Even Oscar Villareal, who I thought would be a great pickup, has sucked ass.  We traded away a ton of our minor league depth in the off-season, and we’ve got almost nothing to tap on the farm.

My first suggestion would be to replace Sampson in the rotation and move him to the pen.  And, if we could, get a second pitcher and move Chacon to he pen, as well (I have this playing with matches feel about Chacon).

Could Roger Clemens be an answer?  I think, if we are serious about making a run, he should be considered.

Yes, I suck. I suck like a Hoover. I suck like that guy in the bathroom at the Brazos River Bar. I suck like…wait, what did I just say? DAMMIT!

Sorry I’ve been away. Some stuff going on in personal life, plus some other haps. So, yeah, sorry. Hopefully, this’ll kick off a new, on-going round of love for the blog.

So, I’ve missed quite a bit, haven’t I? The Stros are 12-4 so far in May, making my projections for eminent doom completely irrational and asshole-y, at best. Oops.

So, let’s catch me up on what’s been going on. How have we been doing it in May? Let’s look at it position by position:

CA - JR Towles - 33 AB, 204 OPS. Brad Ausmus - 25 AB, 707 OPS.
OK, ummmm, we aren’t doing it here, that’s for sure. Towles has been in a horrendous slump, though he did double yesterday. Most worrisome is the increase in his K-rate. And, even through the slump, Towles still has a higher season OPS than does Ausmus (585 vs. 570). Normally, I’m completely for letting a youngster hit his way out of a slump, but this is pretty bad. The more Ausmus plays, though, the worse off we are. For now, we need to start getting Towles more plate appearances against weaker pitchers to get his confidence higher.

1B - Lance “Puma” Berkman - 62 AB, 1690 OPS. No, that’s not a typo: .625 OBP and 1.065 SLG.
Just wow. I mean, what can you really say? I’m almost 40 years old, and I’ve seen a lot of ball over my time. Lance is playing slo-pitch softball against the league right now. And it ain’t no restricted flight ball, either. I can’t remember a hot streak like this for this long. Enjoy it while it lasts.

2B - Kaz Matsui - 60 AB, 871 OPS.
Kaz is doing something he’s never done before: he’s drawing walks at a prodigious pace with 17 in 110 ABs. OK, maybe not prodigious, exactly, but that’s more than double his career rate. Most importantly, he’s getting on base in front of Puma.

3B - Ty “Whiff” Wiggington - 45 AB, 547 OPS.
And to think we actually purposefully traded for this guy, a trade I still don’t understand today. I wonder if Ian Stewart of the Rockies is available? Or do we go straight for Garret Atkins? Regardless, we’ve got to do something here. This just in: Geoff Blum isn’t the answer, either.

SS - Miggy Tejada - 67 ABs, 814 OPS
Does the OPS number surprise you for a guy with a .343 average in May? In fact, his average makes up almost his entire OPS number, which is pretty scary. He only has four doubles and one HR on the month to go with a solitary walk in 67 ABs. I know most people would disagree, but I still do not like the trade that brought Tejada over. After his torrid April start, when considering his defense, he has been barely passable. Yes, this is a harsh assessment but one I am sticking by.

OF - Hunter Pence - 59 ABs, 986 OPS. Carlos Lee - 64 ABs, 878 OPS. Michael Bourn - 66 ABs, 463 OPS. Darrin Erstad - 21 ABs, 1000 OPS.
Hunter and Kaz must be hanging out together as Hunter’s walk rate has jumped, as well. Seven walks in 59 ABs in May ain’t so-ohmigod-totally-awesome, but it’s acceptable. I’ve been saying for a long time that the key to Hunter’s evolution to being a starter quality OF was his grasp of the strike-zone. I love seeing this improvement.

Carlos Lee - Ummmm, yep. This is precisely what Carlos Lee does.

Bourn has been execrable over May, and his walk rate has plummeted while his K rate has soared. Seems that pitchers have learned that a quality pitch in the zone is good enough to get him out, and it’s working. This was my worry with Bourn. He simply has to get stronger and start being at least a threat with the bat before he starts seeing more pitches out of the zone.

I thought I would never say this, but it’s time to get Erstad ABs over Bourn. We’ve got to ride Puma while he’s hot, and Bourn is making way too many outs while Coop hard-headedly leaves him in the leadoff spot.

I’m gonna take a break and hit the pitchers next. WHEE!!!

RoyO on the mound, up 5-2 against the fuzzy Cubbies.  Put it on the board, right?

Not so much.

As Triple347 mentioned, something doesn’t look quite right with Roy.  For me, it wasn’t as much the lack of velocity on his fastball as it was the lack of snap on the slider.  Specifically, in an AB with Geovany Soto, Roy threw three straight sliders that were 84, lazy, and far off the mark.

And Roy didn’t get much help, either.   Oscar, Wright, and Geary couldn’t get an out until three more runs scored, allowing all of their inherited runners to score in the process.  No es bueno.  And if there is something wrong with Roy, who really is our only pitcher capable of giving the pen a rest, then we are going to have even bigger issues with our relievers.  In other words, it’ll be a cascade of shit effect.

Dearest Brad Ausmus: You had a hard time with Oswalt’s stuff yesterday, and the stuff wasn’t that good.  It’s time to start that modeling job, my friend.  Thanks for the weak OPS and all, and you can keep the stool sample, but it’s time.  Kthxbye!

Today, it’s Brandon Backe versus Carlos Zambrano, a matchup that definitely favors the Cubs.  Between the Rocks and Stros, it’s hard to tell who Zambrano owns the most.  Against us, he’s 10-6 with a 2.65 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .193 batting average against, all well below his career numbers.  Meanwhile, against the Cubs, Backe is 2-1, 4.97 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and .292 BAA.  On paper, it’s a mismatch.

Well, at least we aren’t Detroit Tigers fans.  And is anybody else getting some schadenfraude out of their sucky start?

If you’re looking for a fun team to root for this year, you might want to consider the Rays.  They’re a young team and fun to watch.

Finally, a little farm news.  Bud Norris, who is one of the few decent arms we have on the farm, struck out 8 in his Corpus Christi (AA) debut.  Right now, he doesn’t profile as more than a back-end starter, but that’s an encouraging debut.  He’s already 23, and we skipped him past high-A this year, so at least we are fast-tracking him to see what he can do against similarly-aged competition.

The attempt at live-blogging didn’t go off so well. I learned that it’s a helluva lot easier to blog when you aren’t being social at the same time. Oh well.

Some completely random and quick Opening Day thoughts (The Man has me on a huge hamster wheel today):

* Dear Pirates: Trade Xavier Nady now. He serves no purpose on your team, and his value will never be higher.

* What vaunted offense? Jake Peavy shut down the Astros easily. Sure, that’s a tough assignment for any team, but I just don’t think the offense will be nearly as tough as thought. Add on that we are extremely right-handed heavy, I think we’ll be especially ineffective against righties. Oh, and Ass-mass got the start. Well done, Coop, well done.

* DisplacedTexan and Nash both mentioned Eric Gagne and Kerry Wood imploding, which was definitely fun. But here’s the difference between good roster management and player development than not.

- Home-grown Carlos Marmol whiffed three of the four batters he faced. Even though he took the loss, Bob Howry can close, and Michael Wuertz has closer stuff. Wood may not hold on to the closer role, but there’s three legit backups if he falters.

- Milwaukee can fall back on David Riske and Derrick Turnbow, both of whom have previously closed.

- So, what happens if Valverde gets hurt? Who becomes the Stros closer? Doug Brocail? Shawn Chacon? Oscar Villareal? Joe Sambito??? Crap.

The super fantastic Replacement Level Yankees Weblog had a little fun with Diamond Mind Baseball over the last couple of weeks, coming up with forecast standing based off individual players’ forecast statistics. Not dissing on ZiPs or THT or any of the others, I’m going to focus on the results using PECOTA (due to the fact that PECOTA is behind their subscriber firewall, I will be talking a bit in generalities instead of specifics. So why PECOTA? Because it’s the best.).

Running 1000 games in the simulation using PECOTA, the Astros wind up with a 74-88 record, or one game better than the lowly Pirates and the crappily managed Cardinals. And that, sadly, sounds about right.

So, what looks good for the Stros? Even though the team is starting to look like a beer-league softball team on offense, the runs for number comes out to only 744, which would be deep into the lower half of the NL if that comes true. Berkman should be his usual, solid self, but he’s turning 32 this year, and his old player skills - which tend to not age well - worry me deeply. His OPS is being forecast at 900, which definitely doesn’t suck, but Berkman’s lifetime OPS is 971. In other words, we have seen the best Berkman has to offer.

Next is Miguel Tejada. For now, I’ll forgo the argument that this was an asinine trade made by a total dumbass of a GM. Instead, I’ll focus on the forecast. PECOTA has him getting 563 PAs, which I don’t think he’ll come close to meeting. He’s 32 if you believe the birth certificate, and he is simply no longer capable of playing SS on a day-to-day basis, conveniently forgetting that he has no better than fall-down range at this point. With a PECOTA forecast OPS of 800, he’ll be slightly above-average offensively, but whatever he adds with the bat he’s likely to give back with the glove.

Hunter Pence is forecast as the third best Stro in terms of VORP. Until he learns to walk at the break-even 10% rate, I think he will struggle offensively. He doesn’t have a ton of power, yet, though the park will help. Personally, I think his career path is Eric Byrnes.

Finally, we get to the super-mega-huge contracted Carlos Lee. He’ll continue to do his best imitation of a statue in LF, but he’ll also hit the ball. PECOTA has never much liked Lee, in large part because of Lee’s large build, so one could take the over on the projected 850 OPS. Still, he’s already the third player listed here who’s 32, but plays and looks a helluva lot older than that. It’s likely that one of Berkman, Lee, or Tejada will lose significant playing time this year. My bet’s on Tejada.

And then, by VORP, it’s…JR Towles? First of all, I’d be shocked if he gets 497 PAs as is being forecast. Coop will get Ausmus more PT than 170 PAs, no matter how detrimental it is to the team. And if Towles struggles in the least? Ausmus will be back to full-time status in a blink.

For some reason, Nate hasn’t adjusted the Stros lineup to have Michael Bourn in CF over Reggie Abercrombie, but I think we’d be lucky to get Abercrombie-type production from Bourn. Bourn couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag. Think Willy Tavares without the power, and you have Bourn. He’ll need to do a ton with the glove to prove any worth to the team. Again, I’m not optimistic he can do this.

Ty Wiggington? Why? Which god(ess) did I offend so horribly to get Ty Wiggington on the team? Below average offensively and defensively, there is probably no player who better identifies the Tim Purpura error (sic) than Wiggington. Think half a David Wright, and that’s Wiggington. I so hate.

I’ll end with this guy, with this idiotic, moronic signing: Kaz Matsui. Most GMs would’ve looked at the 32-year old (that damn age again!) Matsui and thought, wait a minute, this guy has a 650 OPS everywhere but Coors Field. He sucks pretty badly. But Ed Wade is no such negative ninny! Wade saw Matsui’s 864 OPS at Curs and thought to himself, “Holy shit! He’s a superstar!” That’s the wisdom of seeing the glass half full…when it’s really just the hardened coffee at the bottom of the mug that can’t be scrubbed off anymore. The good news it that there’s no way Matsui gets more than 500 PAs. The bad news is that he’s still considered the starter. And we gave up on Chris Burke for this.

That’s enough. I can’t take anymore. But, for those of you who think that this will be a high-powered offense, I hope you’ll reconsider. This is a poor offense, slow except for Bourn, Matsui, and Pence, and horribly defensively, especially on the left side.

For Part II, I’ll look at the pitchers.  Grab the bleach.