Really?  Randy Wolf?  Look me in the eyes and tell me Ed Wade shouldn’t be fired… yeah… you’re a liar.

Thanks for joining me here in part two, which is really just part 1A of an obscenely long post I felt like breaking into two. What’s really the problem with the Astros? As I suggested earlier, it’s a combination of McLane’s overbearing personality which led to the hiring of problem number two, Special Ed.

It starts at the top with Drayton. You can’t completely begrudge the work he’s done – he introduced a modicum of stability and success into a franchise that had lost its way. He saved the franchise from being moved in the early 90s. That being said, the best owners keep a watchful eye on their franchise but leave the iron fist at home. Not so with Drayton and I think this is best illustrated by two problems. First, the Hunsicker departure. For once, Dickie Justice is right – running Hunsicker out of town was a terrible idea. He’s responsible for our one and only World Series appearance and (just look at the Devil Rays) clearly knows what he’s doing. You keep that sort of talent around even if you disagree with him at times.

Things are in a right awful state at Minute Maid Park. As much as I enjoy Shawn Chacon going Stone Cold Steve Austin on Ed Wade, that is a downright frightening indicator of the cancerous state of the clubhouse. I’ve got my own theories, mostly premised on two things: (1) Drayton McLane is a despot, and (2) Ed Wade makes me wish Steve Phillips was in charge. But all joking aside, it’s time to be extremely worried about your hometown heroes.

What started as one long post – I’ve decided to break into two parts. The idea is pretty simple: accountability is lacking in two places – the Astros and the coverage. Welcome to part one, where the average fan gets no answers from the media!

Now I usually steer clear of the Chomicale, but these guys have access to the clubhouse – and if I’m going to get a straight answer about what’s going on, I need to give Little Dickie Justice and the merry bad of ass-clowns over there a chance to inform me. How many times must I burn my hand on the stove?

Not the one that begins with, “I never thought it would happen to me…”, but it’s a start.

HOUSTON (AP)—Astros pitcher Shawn Chacon was suspended indefinitely by the team Wednesday for insubordination after reportedly grabbing general manager Ed Wade by the neck and throwing him to the ground.

Now, I’m not condoning violence, per se, as much as I am hoping that, when Chacon grabbed Wade, it dislodged whatever it is that has obviously been keeping oxygen from his brain.  Of course, it’s also fair game to wonder how Chacon grabbed Wade’s neck in the first place.  Was he actually just giving me a friendly colonoscopy that got out of hand?

Nevertheless, it’s fair to think that Chacon has seen his last game as an Astro.  And, here again, we go dipping into our horribly depleted minor league system to try and find an answer.

Dammit.

(PS: Dear AP: I linked to one of your articles, assholes.  See you in court.  And if you think the proven scam artists at the Media Bloggers Association represent me, you guys are incredibly moronic.)

The Astros team I feared in the offseason? The one with no pitching what so ever and a streaky, long-ball based offense? Yeah - I found them. And since they are playing Baltimore, they’re even in my TV viewing area! Which means I’ve been able to watch it live and on TV! If you need me, I’ll be over here crying myself to sleep because I see no fixes in the near future and nothing coming up from the farm.

That’s a long way of saying the following - it’s time to fire Ed Wade and Cecil Cooper. To be fair, Ed Wade should never have been hired in the first place. There are not actually words in the English language to express my utter dislike of Ed Wade. “But he drafted Utley, Rollins and Howard for the Phillies!” And tried shipping two of them out of town for crappy veterans. I really don’t understand - the model for sustainability is to develop a strong farm system and compliment it with key veteran/free-agent signings. Look no further than the Red Sox. The core of that team is home-grown talent (Ellsbury, Masterson, Paplebon, Youk) with some fantastic free agents. So what do we do? Ship whatever is left and bring in aging veterans like Tejada and Matsui. This, friends, is not a recipe for success. And don’t tell me we can’t afford that model - look at our payroll.

And as for Cooper? I no longer can justify his moves. He rests veterans for inexplicable reasons, makes curious pitching decisions, and just generally seems out of his league. Gah!

I understand this is a long rambling rant from a disgruntled fan. But watching the Good Guys play ball the last few days has been nothing short of distressing. And the Cubs are in first. God I hate baseball.

Wait a minute.  Did I see that second part correctly?  Ed Wade did something I like?

Errrrr, yeah, he did.

Look, Jorge Sosa ain’t gonna set the world on fire.  After all, he got kicked to the curb with a 7.06 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP.  And, nope, he ain’t gonna suddenly overcome his control problems at 31 yo.  But, he is better than most of what he have in the pen today, and anything this side of Les Sweetland is an improvement in our rack-tacular pen.

Well done, little Wade, well done.

And, as an added extra bonus (with the caveat I have no idea what this sounds like), here’s the Puma Song (courtesy of my sister)!

It was another above-.500 week for the hometown heroes, but the first thing that catches your eye is:

Runs Scored:  30

Runs Against: 40

Sure, most of that differential was Sunday’s blowout craptacular, but that’s still a ton of runs to give up in a single week.

Good news first:

Carlos Lee: 12 RBI in 25 ABs on the week?  That’s like *mumble to self for a moment* a whole shitload of RBI for one week.  Puma deserves man-crush status, and there’s been a lot of love for Pence and Matsui, but Lee has been dead-on tough all year.  RBI is a team stat, but driving in 12 out of 30 runs for the week is uh-mazing.

Puma: 880 OPS on the week, but five runs scored.  He’s starting to come down from his high, but he’s still playing extremely well (though, and is it me?, or is his defense at first sometimes adventurous?).

Hunter Pence: Three bombs and five runs.  He’s recovering from his first month slump well.

Michael Bourn: An 800 OPS?  Five SBs with no caught stealing?  But even with this week, he had only one BB with seven strikeouts.

 Ty Wiggington?:  Seriously?  Is that six doubles and nine hits in just 17 ABs?  It did seem like he was on 2nd most of the week.

Brandon Backe: His best season is coming after a TJ reconstruction?  Should we goon him up over the winter (kidding!)?

Chris Sampson: He hates him some Cubs, but he got lit up in his second start of the week.  His ERA is 6.04, and he’s only striking out 4.5/9IP. We need to do something about his slot, and quickly.

Shawn Chacon: Wow, what can you say?  He hates the Cubs more than Sampson.  His WHIP and ERA don’t match up well, but I am truly surprised Chacon has been this effective after being lit up like a Christmas tree for most of his career.

Scuffy Moehler???: And then you get two nice starts from Scuffy.  It was a good week to be a Stro starting pitcher.

Wait a minute!  We gave up almost 6 runs a game over the week.  What happened?

The bad:

Roy: Another rough start, giving him 22 HA in just 12 IP in his last two starts…which look a lot like his first couple of weeks of the season.  It’s the hits that worry me the most, which is adding to an atrocious WHIP.  I’m still worried about his health, whether it’s just his hip (last week), his groin (chronic), or something different.

Wesley Wright: Wright in April: 4.15 ERA, 5 BB and 11 K in 8.2 IP.  In May?  7 BB and 3(!) K in 9 IP.  He pitched so well in April that it was hard to remember he’s a Rule V pick, but he has been struggling pretty badly.  In addition, even as bad as his numbers are belie the fact that he’s missing spots.

Dave “Molotov Cocktail”  Borkowski and Fernando”Boom Boom” Nieve: I think it’s safe to say that Nieve needs more seasoning, and Borkowski is done.

Miggy Tejada: 680 OPS.  His power is disappearing, and he still doesn’t draw walks.

Kaz Matsui: 427 OPS, but the silver lining is that he drew four walks.  His huge uptick in walks has kept him valuable.  We need him to sustain.

JR Towles and Brad Ausmus: Dear Mr. Coop, Please either play Towles or send him to AAA.  Either way, keep Ausmus the fuck off the field.  Thank you for your patronage.

Summary:

One of the biggest knocks against Ed Wade when he was hired was that he didn’t know how to piece together a bullpen, and that problem is glowing loudly for the 2008 Astros.  The bullpen is pathetic except for Doug Brocail and Jose Valverde.  Even Oscar Villareal, who I thought would be a great pickup, has sucked ass.  We traded away a ton of our minor league depth in the off-season, and we’ve got almost nothing to tap on the farm.

My first suggestion would be to replace Sampson in the rotation and move him to the pen.  And, if we could, get a second pitcher and move Chacon to he pen, as well (I have this playing with matches feel about Chacon).

Could Roger Clemens be an answer?  I think, if we are serious about making a run, he should be considered.

Title in honor of Edward Lorenz.

Ed Wade took over as GM of the Astros in September 2007. From points raised in the Lying Liar discussion, let’s take a quick look at some of deals he’s pulled off, specifically, those that have a Miggy Tejada-esque impact (Caveat: I think we can safely assume that Drayton is one of the most meddling owners in baseball, so this needs to be considered when appraising GM performance).

11/7/07 - Acquired OF Michael Bourn, nonroster 3B Michael Costanzo and RHP Geoff Geary from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Brad Lidge and SS Eric Bruntlett.

• Bourn has been Bourn: good speed, lots of SBs, and good D. His 697 OPS is Kaz Matsu-esque, though. In other words, he’s like Assmass with speed in CF.
• Michael Costanzo: Became part of the Tejada deal. Struggling to make contact in AAA, and a B/B- level prospect.
• Geoff Geary: Has been solid this year, though his BABIP (Batting average balls in play) is entirely unsustainable. Still, he’s been one of our better RPs this year.
• Brad Lidge: Injured, struggling with control, but he’s got a pair of saves and a 0 ERA.
• Eric Bruntlett: Has seen a lot of action thanks to Jimmy Rollins’ injury, which over-exposes him. One of the better utility infielders in the game, and somebody I was sad to see go.

11/16/07 - Acquired RHP Oscar Villarreal from the Braves in exchange for OF Josh Anderson

• Oscar: I really thought this would be Wade’s best deal, but Villareal is looking old and used. I expect some regression to the mean (so he gets better), but that Villareal has seen action in half our games is not a positive sign.
• Josh Anderson is Michael Bourn with less stick.

12/2/07 - Signed free agent 2B Kazuo Matsui to a three-year contract.

• I have not hidden my contempt for this deal. Signing a 32-yo 2b to a 3-year deal who has never hit outside of Coors Field - literally - is disastrous on so many levels. Kaz is due to make his Astros debut tonight.

12/12/07 - Acquired SS Miguel Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for OF Luke Scott, RHP Matt Albers, LHP Troy Patton, RHP Dennis Sarfate and 3B Mike Costanzo; Claimed RHP Ryan Houston off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays; Did not offer a 2008 contract to SS Adam Everett, making him a free agent.

• Tejeda is playing like he’s 25, though he’s really 34.
• Luke Scott: Scott scuffled horribly in the 1st half of 2007, but he put up a 978 OPS in the 2nd half. This year, he’s at 1.056. You shouldn’t be surprised.
• Albers: Was one of my favorite pitchers to watch last year thanks to his 95 MPH fastball that darted. He was pretty awful in 2007, but he’s been outstanding in the early going in Baltimore. I think he’s a legit #2 or #3 starter with his stuff.
• Troy Patton: dead.
• Sarate was outstanding for us at the end of 2007, but he has struggled with Baltimore.
• Costanzo, again, has struggled for contact.

12/14/07 - Acquired RHP Jose Valverde from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for INF Chris Burke and RHP Juan Gutierrez and RHP Chad Qualls.

• Jose Valverde: The Latino Lidge (except that, you know, Lidge has been good)
• Chris Burke: Has been awful in a utility role, that I do not think suits him.
• Gutierrez: Especially considering park context, he has been a very solid starter for the Tucson Sidewinders. Still no more than a #3 or #4 starter, but he’s got some potential.
• Qualls: Same as it ever was with Qualls, who is still one of the top middle relievers in the game. Has also picked up a save to go with that 0 ERA.

So, what’s been the effect?

IF: Gaining Tejada and Matsui > losing Burke, Bruntlett, and Adam Everett. Signing Matsui made Burke expendable, and Everett was canned after the Tejada deal. However, we took on about $15MM in salary with this exchange, so it did come with a substantial opportunity cost on the rest of the roster. Still, an easy win.

OF: Losing Scott, Anderson > gaining Bourn. Sorry, but this is pretty easy. Yes, we do gain team speed and, obviously, we get better D in CF. But, this isn’t enough to off-set the difference in runs produced between Scott and Bourn. It was the Lidge trade that made Scott available.

SP: Losing Gutierrez, Albers, Patton > well, nothing. Huge losses here. One can say, wait, we signed Shawn Chacon! We could’ve signed Chacon regardless. Even with Patton’s injury, we do not have two arms like Gutierrez and Albers outside of Nieve. Tremendously adverse impact on our depth.

RP: Losing Lidge, Qualls, Sarfate > gaining Geary, Valverde, Villareal. Lidge is, and will be, better than Valverde. One can talk about how Lidge was necessary to get Bourn, but I don’t think that deal was positive. Villareal makes it close, but the dude has got to keep the ball in the yard.

Summary: Yes, we got a helluva lot better offensively at SS and defensively at 2b, but at what price? Our OF is weaker, out pitching is thinner, and our relievers are explosive. Sure, one *could* say we did a heckuva job shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic, but I still believe these moves mean a net negative.

It’s not even three weeks into the season, though, and I am just some damn blogger in his mother’s basement who doesn’t really enjoy baseball because I look at stats (this has a point).

Source for trade info: mlb.com

Note: The format came out kinda funky. If this bothers you, please let me know.

Jose de Jesus Ortiz, quite possibly the only chron writer who doesn’t make me physically ill (and I rather enjoy him, actually), reports today that Miguel Tejada, that beacon of righteousness, is a big fat liar. OK, perhaps I’m being harsh (duh!). I do agree with Ortiz’ blog-based sentiment that, perhaps, lying wasn’t such a bad thing. And, all of his legal documents show his correct age. However, this should have all been cleared up many years ago, at least by the Age-Gate controversy, but it wasn’t.

In one of my first posts on this nascent blog, I expressed doubt about Tejada’s age. Doubts as to Tejada’s age have been around for several years. Considering the normal peak for hitters is between 26-30 years old, adding two years to his age makes his career path follow historical patterns more closely.

So what? Blah blah blah, bfd, you calloused old under-sexed alcoholic bitter old MF, what does this mean to me?

To put it in perspective, instead of having him tied up over his age 32 and 33 seasons, it’s now his 34 and 35 seasons. And, now that we are in the post-roid era, we’ll have a more normal player production curve. Offensively, we know that players have a tendency to tail off after their age 32 season.

Last year was Tejada’s lowest OPS since his 2001 season, but he also showed a considerable power drop-off. Adding two years means that this is more likely a trend - the declining numbers - than it was a statistical variance.

Finally, let me add that Ed Wade deserves even more scrutiny after this deal. Pulling the trigger the day before the Mitchell Report, and then likely knowing Tejada’s correct age, is poor management. You can try to convince me otherwise, but good luck. It was this deal that soured me on the Stros’ hopes for the season, and now I’m closer to flat-out pissed.

————————

In today’s action, the Astros staff gave up four HRs in an ugly effort today. Miggy celebrated his pair of birthday’s today by homering, as well. I wonder if he gets two cakes?

Wednesday nights are tough for me - it’s an important family night - so I didn’t get to see the game yesterday. But how nice was it to see some goose eggs on Roy’s linescore? The Phillies, even without Rollins, are a solid offensive squad. Yesterday’s outing was a boost for me (and, you know, it’s really all about me).

Edit: Nate Silver re-ran Tejada’s PECOTA projections after adding on two years (sub required).  The take away is that there is not a huge difference in his 2008 numbers - though it’s not statistically insignificant, but the new age lowers his overall value 40% from here on out.  That’s the performance curve drop-off I talk about above.

This is the first in a non-probable series about the Stros, looking at what’s going right and what’s going wrong. Since it’s only the first four games of the season, the usual small sample size caveats apply.

Rights:

1. The relief pitching. Well, Oscar Villareal and Geoff Geary, at least. But, it’s also kind of on the “Wrongs” side as, in the first four games, they have combined for 6 IP. It’s improbable to expect that Geary throws 81 effective innings, and over-use is what got Villareal hurt the first time around, and he’s on a pace for 162 IP. Again, the usual small sample size blah blah blah applies, but one of my biggest fears is that Coop over-relies on Villareal and somebody else (in this case, Geary), and they wind up getting hurt. But, if I were Coop, I’d be scared to hand the ball to Molotov Borkowski and Scuffy Moehler , as well, so I don’t know what the answer is except for whiplash treatment.

2. Lance Berkman. Mentioned a couple of times already, but the fact he’s hitting for power early has to be a huge confidence boost and a sign he’ll eclipse is PECOTA projected OPS of .900.

3. Micheal Bourn. Hopefully, I didn’t jinx the poor guy, but I like that he’s drawing walks.

4. The fielding. No errors? Seriously? Is there a problem with the stat feed? No?

Wrongs:

1. The pitching outside of Shawn Chacon, Oscar, and Geoff. The Mets got to play the Marlins, so they kinda don’t count. But which team has the second highest OPS heading into the weekend series? The Padres. Their home park didn’t suppress their numbers one bit. That the Stros wound up with a team ERA of 4.09 is more a matter of luck than effective pitching (the Padres lead the league with 37 LOB), and when you consider that our team ERA in 2007 was 4.68, there’s some additional regressing to do.

2. The hitting outside of Lance. Obviously, we can expect some regression toward a decent offensive squad, and the Pads have some tough pitchers, but the first series was a serious disappointment.

Facing Jake Peavy at San Diego was a tough way to start the season, but we struggled against a pretty marginal offense, which is disturbing.

We open against the Cubs today (in about 20 minutes, in fact). Chris Sampson goes against Rich Hill today, Roy faces Jason Marquis (stifles snicker) on Saturday, and the finale sees Brandon Backe dual with Carlos Zambrano, who is still the only pitcher I’ve heard of get injured while wanking.