Remember when I wrote this post and everybody thought I was being too harsh on the offense? Well…

Name, Projected OPS, Reality, +/- OPS (+ is good)

Michael Bourn, 700, 577, -123

Carlos Lee, 849, 794, -55

Miguel Tejada, 796, 814, +18

Kaz Matsui, 682, 679, -3

Ty Wiggington, 813, 800, -13

Brad Ausmus, 597, 447, -150

Hunter Pence, 852, 808, -44

Lance Berkman, 901, 1.219, +318

This isn’t everybody, but we can draw two fairly plausible conclusions:

1. PECOTA has been pretty dead-on-balls accurate.

2. Puma = God.

This little exercise was just for fun. I’ll be re-visiting this topic a couple of times over the course of the season.

Edit: Fixed my error (h/t Lee), and changed the title to better reflect article content.

5/30 Recap: Well, it looks like I was a little too prescient.  Backe gave up three bombs in just 5IP, and our top three hitters went a combined 1-14 with 4 Ks.  Bourn, all by his bad self, left five on base.  If we are going to continue to get Bourn the most PAs on the team, then we deserve to lose ignominiously.  I think Bourn has proven he can’t handle the lead-off spot.  Matsui is down to a 685 OPS, and his OBP is down to .347.

5/31 Quick Preview: The Stros have a tough match-up today with Scuffy Moehler going against Ben Sheets, who has been one of the best pitchers in the league this year.  Puma has an 1100+ OPS off Sheets, and Matsui and Pence have well off him, as well.  In only 5 PAs, Tejada has struggled.  Scuffy has done well for us so far this year, and he’ll need to going against Sheets today.

5/28 Recap: Mmmmmm, yeah, that wasn’t real pretty. Wandy, predictably, struggled in his return, and Adam Wainwright dominated the lineup.

Interestingly, Kaz Matsui, who was supposed to harden the keystone defense, made his 9th error last night and has a downright poor .947 fielding percentage, which is easily worst in the league. According to the numbers, he ranks below average in both range factor and zone rating, as well. His OPS has dropped from 785 on May 19 to 711 after last night’s 0-fer. And that 711 OPS? Right at his career average. If Matsui stops drawing walks at the highest pace of his career, he will be a net loss at the position. But as bad as Chris Burke has been this year…

5/29 Quick Preview:

RoyO goes against Kyle “Somebody, for the love of Jeebus, please sign me!” Lohse. I’ve said it before: We need Roy to start pitching well, the sooner the better. Game starts at about 7:15pm tonight, so I won’t be able to watch this one at work. There are a couple of afternoon games, at least, including the worst possible match-up I can imagine: Washington at San Diego. *shudders*

First, major {hugs} to Matt for the new design. If I wasn’t a married, straight man, I would so fall in love with him.

This week’s edition of Rights and Wrongs will be the last to solely look at the year as a whole. I figure, three weeks in, it’s time to look at things at a micro view from here on out. That said, let’s hit that shit!!!!

Offense:

Ummmm, holy shit? Towles is hitting for major power, Berkman has been good, and Tejada still thinks he’s 25 instead of 104 years old. Yet, Aaron Cook can kick our ass? One of my biggest worries is that Pence and Bourn have whiff rates that would make Dave Kingman blush.

My biggest worry, however, is that (before today’s game) your Houston Astros are dead last in OBP. Last. Done. Dead. As a baseball stat geek, it’s important to know why that’s, ummmmmm, important. Here’s the deal: OPS should be 1.6 OPS + 1 SLG. The reason is that there is really only one fixed variable in baseball, and that is there are only three outs per inning. That’s what makes not making outs so important. And, right now, we are making a shitload of outs.

We are slugging like mad, at least, as we clock in almost in the middle there (considering our batting average, that’s quite a feat).  Until we start seeing more pitches and drawing more walks, the offense will under-perform.

Note: I started this post last (Sunday) night, but I was too exhausted to complete the sucker.  This is where I stopped, so I am going to cheat a bit going forward.

Pitching:

Now, I predict Roy will have a nicely solid start against the Padres Monday night, going seven innings with 6 Ks.  OK, maybe that’s too much cheating.  Anyway, it’s nice to have you back, Roy.  You were sorely missed.

Wandy?  Is that you?  He has been a total badass this year, but, sadly, he’ll be sitting out the next couple of weeks with a….strained groin.  The only words I hate typing more than “strained groin” are “anal fissures.”  Well, the latter is actually kinda fun.  I mean, how often do you get to type “anal” in a baseball blog that’s not about Barry Bonds?

Shawn Chacon has been on fire, as well.  But, he scares me.  His current BA against is .220 while his career mark is .259, and he’s been at .272 and .265 the last two seasons.  We can expect regression to the mean here.  If he can cut back on his walks, though, he could make up for the BA against rate hike.  Still, a pleasant surprise.

All 41 years of Doug Brocail is having a career year.  He picked up a save earlier in the week, but he’s far more valuable in his current role than he his collecting those shiny round objects known as saves.  My biggest worry, and you’ve heard this before, is that he’s on a pace to pitch in 80+ games.  We’re starting to move past the whole small sample size factor on this, and at 41 yo, this pace is simply untenable.

Geoff Geary (wha???) and Wesley Wright have both done yeoman’s work in middle relief.  Wright may turn out to be the best Rule V pickup this year.  With a little more control, he really could be something special.

Dave Borkowski, Brandon Backe, Brian “Scuffy” Moehler, and Chris Sampson all have WHIPs above 1.7.  Moehler and Sampson are scary, Backe is basically rehabbing from Tommy John surgery in the majors, and, I swear, Borkowski means “pour gasoline on fire” in Polish.

Jose Valverde?  Watching him pitch reminds me of this:

(Stolen without permission from this awesome post from USS Mariner).

The hometown heroes are 9-12 after this evening’s drubbing of the Pa-dregs.  That’s a pace for a 69-93 record.  I still believe that our season hinges on Roy’s health: tonight’s start gives the much used pen a needed rest.  I’m worried about the workload the pen is having to take.

And that’s all I’ve got to say about that.  HAPPY ANAL FISSURES TO YOU ALL!!!

Title in honor of Edward Lorenz.

Ed Wade took over as GM of the Astros in September 2007. From points raised in the Lying Liar discussion, let’s take a quick look at some of deals he’s pulled off, specifically, those that have a Miggy Tejada-esque impact (Caveat: I think we can safely assume that Drayton is one of the most meddling owners in baseball, so this needs to be considered when appraising GM performance).

11/7/07 - Acquired OF Michael Bourn, nonroster 3B Michael Costanzo and RHP Geoff Geary from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Brad Lidge and SS Eric Bruntlett.

• Bourn has been Bourn: good speed, lots of SBs, and good D. His 697 OPS is Kaz Matsu-esque, though. In other words, he’s like Assmass with speed in CF.
• Michael Costanzo: Became part of the Tejada deal. Struggling to make contact in AAA, and a B/B- level prospect.
• Geoff Geary: Has been solid this year, though his BABIP (Batting average balls in play) is entirely unsustainable. Still, he’s been one of our better RPs this year.
• Brad Lidge: Injured, struggling with control, but he’s got a pair of saves and a 0 ERA.
• Eric Bruntlett: Has seen a lot of action thanks to Jimmy Rollins’ injury, which over-exposes him. One of the better utility infielders in the game, and somebody I was sad to see go.

11/16/07 - Acquired RHP Oscar Villarreal from the Braves in exchange for OF Josh Anderson

• Oscar: I really thought this would be Wade’s best deal, but Villareal is looking old and used. I expect some regression to the mean (so he gets better), but that Villareal has seen action in half our games is not a positive sign.
• Josh Anderson is Michael Bourn with less stick.

12/2/07 - Signed free agent 2B Kazuo Matsui to a three-year contract.

• I have not hidden my contempt for this deal. Signing a 32-yo 2b to a 3-year deal who has never hit outside of Coors Field - literally - is disastrous on so many levels. Kaz is due to make his Astros debut tonight.

12/12/07 - Acquired SS Miguel Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for OF Luke Scott, RHP Matt Albers, LHP Troy Patton, RHP Dennis Sarfate and 3B Mike Costanzo; Claimed RHP Ryan Houston off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays; Did not offer a 2008 contract to SS Adam Everett, making him a free agent.

• Tejeda is playing like he’s 25, though he’s really 34.
• Luke Scott: Scott scuffled horribly in the 1st half of 2007, but he put up a 978 OPS in the 2nd half. This year, he’s at 1.056. You shouldn’t be surprised.
• Albers: Was one of my favorite pitchers to watch last year thanks to his 95 MPH fastball that darted. He was pretty awful in 2007, but he’s been outstanding in the early going in Baltimore. I think he’s a legit #2 or #3 starter with his stuff.
• Troy Patton: dead.
• Sarate was outstanding for us at the end of 2007, but he has struggled with Baltimore.
• Costanzo, again, has struggled for contact.

12/14/07 - Acquired RHP Jose Valverde from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for INF Chris Burke and RHP Juan Gutierrez and RHP Chad Qualls.

• Jose Valverde: The Latino Lidge (except that, you know, Lidge has been good)
• Chris Burke: Has been awful in a utility role, that I do not think suits him.
• Gutierrez: Especially considering park context, he has been a very solid starter for the Tucson Sidewinders. Still no more than a #3 or #4 starter, but he’s got some potential.
• Qualls: Same as it ever was with Qualls, who is still one of the top middle relievers in the game. Has also picked up a save to go with that 0 ERA.

So, what’s been the effect?

IF: Gaining Tejada and Matsui > losing Burke, Bruntlett, and Adam Everett. Signing Matsui made Burke expendable, and Everett was canned after the Tejada deal. However, we took on about $15MM in salary with this exchange, so it did come with a substantial opportunity cost on the rest of the roster. Still, an easy win.

OF: Losing Scott, Anderson > gaining Bourn. Sorry, but this is pretty easy. Yes, we do gain team speed and, obviously, we get better D in CF. But, this isn’t enough to off-set the difference in runs produced between Scott and Bourn. It was the Lidge trade that made Scott available.

SP: Losing Gutierrez, Albers, Patton > well, nothing. Huge losses here. One can say, wait, we signed Shawn Chacon! We could’ve signed Chacon regardless. Even with Patton’s injury, we do not have two arms like Gutierrez and Albers outside of Nieve. Tremendously adverse impact on our depth.

RP: Losing Lidge, Qualls, Sarfate > gaining Geary, Valverde, Villareal. Lidge is, and will be, better than Valverde. One can talk about how Lidge was necessary to get Bourn, but I don’t think that deal was positive. Villareal makes it close, but the dude has got to keep the ball in the yard.

Summary: Yes, we got a helluva lot better offensively at SS and defensively at 2b, but at what price? Our OF is weaker, out pitching is thinner, and our relievers are explosive. Sure, one *could* say we did a heckuva job shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic, but I still believe these moves mean a net negative.

It’s not even three weeks into the season, though, and I am just some damn blogger in his mother’s basement who doesn’t really enjoy baseball because I look at stats (this has a point).

Source for trade info: mlb.com

Note: The format came out kinda funky. If this bothers you, please let me know.

St. Louis Cardinals (5-1) @ Houston Astros (2-5)

Round 1:

Todd Wellemeyer (1-0) 

v.

Wandy Rodriguez (0-0)

Well, it sure didn’t take long for all of us to jump into our first series match-up since we started this here thing we call WTP.  Luckily for me, I have the advantage of being able to gloat just a little as our teams sit at opposite ends of the NL Central standings going into tonight’s game.  5-1?!?  WOW!  What a start!  Yes, as I stated here, I truly believed that these Cardinals would fair much better than what most of the so-called experts were predicting–mainly because I believed that Rick Ankiel’s hitting from last year was no fluke, thought our middle infield would fair far better as a whole (y’all don’t realize the intense hatred I had for that little league “shortstop” we carried for far too long), still thought we had the best bullpen in the division, and really loved the way we competed and won game after game to close out Spring Training.  But this?!?  The best starting pitching in the league after Week 1?!?  Granted, it’s only Week 1 and the starters will eventually come back to earth, not to mention we had the luxury of opening our season at Busch II, but I certainly could not have dreamed of a better start to the ‘08 campaign. 

So, other than the phenomenal performances turned in by this makeshift rotation, who else has impressed?  Obviously, it’s Rick Ankiel.  This mancrush is just getting out of hand now.  The guy just continues to come up big in clutch situations, hit for power, and his success versus lefties is something that I didn’t see coming.  His outfield defense has even been far better than first advertised; his catch in the 8th inning yesterday was Jimmy Edmonds-esque (minus the bad first step).  Adam Kennedy, at least so far, looks much more like the guy that played in Anaheim, er, Los Angeles, er whateverthefuck (as opposed to the assclown that showed up last year).  Kyle McClellan, the local St. Louis product, is proving to have a lot of grit and guts coming out of the ‘pen as he offsets not having Russ Springer down there with Ryan Franklin setting up for Izzy.  And Brian Barton, the Rule 5 castaway from Matty’s Indians, has continued to hit and may have even bumped Skip Schumaker from the leadoff and starting outfield spot.  Hell, LaRussa even went with the same exact line-up yesterday that he used the day before!  All this Redbird talk and I didn’t even have to mention that Pujols guy.  Amazing stuff so far!

**Update: Troy Glaus is still a big flappin’ pussy, but at least he’s turned in some decent glove work the past two games. 

So, what’s up with those Stros besides injuries to Berkman and Wigginton, being completely owned by Derek Lee over the weekend, and Your Boy Roy giving up 21 hits in his first two starts?  The one-run losses have to be frustrating–looks like you guys have been in every game this year.  Any anal fissures updates?  Tejada is actually lookin’ good out there for ya.

The super fantastic Replacement Level Yankees Weblog had a little fun with Diamond Mind Baseball over the last couple of weeks, coming up with forecast standing based off individual players’ forecast statistics. Not dissing on ZiPs or THT or any of the others, I’m going to focus on the results using PECOTA (due to the fact that PECOTA is behind their subscriber firewall, I will be talking a bit in generalities instead of specifics. So why PECOTA? Because it’s the best.).

Running 1000 games in the simulation using PECOTA, the Astros wind up with a 74-88 record, or one game better than the lowly Pirates and the crappily managed Cardinals. And that, sadly, sounds about right.

So, what looks good for the Stros? Even though the team is starting to look like a beer-league softball team on offense, the runs for number comes out to only 744, which would be deep into the lower half of the NL if that comes true. Berkman should be his usual, solid self, but he’s turning 32 this year, and his old player skills - which tend to not age well - worry me deeply. His OPS is being forecast at 900, which definitely doesn’t suck, but Berkman’s lifetime OPS is 971. In other words, we have seen the best Berkman has to offer.

Next is Miguel Tejada. For now, I’ll forgo the argument that this was an asinine trade made by a total dumbass of a GM. Instead, I’ll focus on the forecast. PECOTA has him getting 563 PAs, which I don’t think he’ll come close to meeting. He’s 32 if you believe the birth certificate, and he is simply no longer capable of playing SS on a day-to-day basis, conveniently forgetting that he has no better than fall-down range at this point. With a PECOTA forecast OPS of 800, he’ll be slightly above-average offensively, but whatever he adds with the bat he’s likely to give back with the glove.

Hunter Pence is forecast as the third best Stro in terms of VORP. Until he learns to walk at the break-even 10% rate, I think he will struggle offensively. He doesn’t have a ton of power, yet, though the park will help. Personally, I think his career path is Eric Byrnes.

Finally, we get to the super-mega-huge contracted Carlos Lee. He’ll continue to do his best imitation of a statue in LF, but he’ll also hit the ball. PECOTA has never much liked Lee, in large part because of Lee’s large build, so one could take the over on the projected 850 OPS. Still, he’s already the third player listed here who’s 32, but plays and looks a helluva lot older than that. It’s likely that one of Berkman, Lee, or Tejada will lose significant playing time this year. My bet’s on Tejada.

And then, by VORP, it’s…JR Towles? First of all, I’d be shocked if he gets 497 PAs as is being forecast. Coop will get Ausmus more PT than 170 PAs, no matter how detrimental it is to the team. And if Towles struggles in the least? Ausmus will be back to full-time status in a blink.

For some reason, Nate hasn’t adjusted the Stros lineup to have Michael Bourn in CF over Reggie Abercrombie, but I think we’d be lucky to get Abercrombie-type production from Bourn. Bourn couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag. Think Willy Tavares without the power, and you have Bourn. He’ll need to do a ton with the glove to prove any worth to the team. Again, I’m not optimistic he can do this.

Ty Wiggington? Why? Which god(ess) did I offend so horribly to get Ty Wiggington on the team? Below average offensively and defensively, there is probably no player who better identifies the Tim Purpura error (sic) than Wiggington. Think half a David Wright, and that’s Wiggington. I so hate.

I’ll end with this guy, with this idiotic, moronic signing: Kaz Matsui. Most GMs would’ve looked at the 32-year old (that damn age again!) Matsui and thought, wait a minute, this guy has a 650 OPS everywhere but Coors Field. He sucks pretty badly. But Ed Wade is no such negative ninny! Wade saw Matsui’s 864 OPS at Curs and thought to himself, “Holy shit! He’s a superstar!” That’s the wisdom of seeing the glass half full…when it’s really just the hardened coffee at the bottom of the mug that can’t be scrubbed off anymore. The good news it that there’s no way Matsui gets more than 500 PAs. The bad news is that he’s still considered the starter. And we gave up on Chris Burke for this.

That’s enough. I can’t take anymore. But, for those of you who think that this will be a high-powered offense, I hope you’ll reconsider. This is a poor offense, slow except for Bourn, Matsui, and Pence, and horribly defensively, especially on the left side.

For Part II, I’ll look at the pitchers.  Grab the bleach.