Yes, I suck. I suck like a Hoover. I suck like that guy in the bathroom at the Brazos River Bar. I suck like…wait, what did I just say? DAMMIT!

Sorry I’ve been away. Some stuff going on in personal life, plus some other haps. So, yeah, sorry. Hopefully, this’ll kick off a new, on-going round of love for the blog.

So, I’ve missed quite a bit, haven’t I? The Stros are 12-4 so far in May, making my projections for eminent doom completely irrational and asshole-y, at best. Oops.

So, let’s catch me up on what’s been going on. How have we been doing it in May? Let’s look at it position by position:

CA - JR Towles - 33 AB, 204 OPS. Brad Ausmus - 25 AB, 707 OPS.
OK, ummmm, we aren’t doing it here, that’s for sure. Towles has been in a horrendous slump, though he did double yesterday. Most worrisome is the increase in his K-rate. And, even through the slump, Towles still has a higher season OPS than does Ausmus (585 vs. 570). Normally, I’m completely for letting a youngster hit his way out of a slump, but this is pretty bad. The more Ausmus plays, though, the worse off we are. For now, we need to start getting Towles more plate appearances against weaker pitchers to get his confidence higher.

1B - Lance “Puma” Berkman - 62 AB, 1690 OPS. No, that’s not a typo: .625 OBP and 1.065 SLG.
Just wow. I mean, what can you really say? I’m almost 40 years old, and I’ve seen a lot of ball over my time. Lance is playing slo-pitch softball against the league right now. And it ain’t no restricted flight ball, either. I can’t remember a hot streak like this for this long. Enjoy it while it lasts.

2B - Kaz Matsui - 60 AB, 871 OPS.
Kaz is doing something he’s never done before: he’s drawing walks at a prodigious pace with 17 in 110 ABs. OK, maybe not prodigious, exactly, but that’s more than double his career rate. Most importantly, he’s getting on base in front of Puma.

3B - Ty “Whiff” Wiggington - 45 AB, 547 OPS.
And to think we actually purposefully traded for this guy, a trade I still don’t understand today. I wonder if Ian Stewart of the Rockies is available? Or do we go straight for Garret Atkins? Regardless, we’ve got to do something here. This just in: Geoff Blum isn’t the answer, either.

SS - Miggy Tejada - 67 ABs, 814 OPS
Does the OPS number surprise you for a guy with a .343 average in May? In fact, his average makes up almost his entire OPS number, which is pretty scary. He only has four doubles and one HR on the month to go with a solitary walk in 67 ABs. I know most people would disagree, but I still do not like the trade that brought Tejada over. After his torrid April start, when considering his defense, he has been barely passable. Yes, this is a harsh assessment but one I am sticking by.

OF - Hunter Pence - 59 ABs, 986 OPS. Carlos Lee - 64 ABs, 878 OPS. Michael Bourn - 66 ABs, 463 OPS. Darrin Erstad - 21 ABs, 1000 OPS.
Hunter and Kaz must be hanging out together as Hunter’s walk rate has jumped, as well. Seven walks in 59 ABs in May ain’t so-ohmigod-totally-awesome, but it’s acceptable. I’ve been saying for a long time that the key to Hunter’s evolution to being a starter quality OF was his grasp of the strike-zone. I love seeing this improvement.

Carlos Lee - Ummmm, yep. This is precisely what Carlos Lee does.

Bourn has been execrable over May, and his walk rate has plummeted while his K rate has soared. Seems that pitchers have learned that a quality pitch in the zone is good enough to get him out, and it’s working. This was my worry with Bourn. He simply has to get stronger and start being at least a threat with the bat before he starts seeing more pitches out of the zone.

I thought I would never say this, but it’s time to get Erstad ABs over Bourn. We’ve got to ride Puma while he’s hot, and Bourn is making way too many outs while Coop hard-headedly leaves him in the leadoff spot.

I’m gonna take a break and hit the pitchers next. WHEE!!!

Title in honor of Edward Lorenz.

Ed Wade took over as GM of the Astros in September 2007. From points raised in the Lying Liar discussion, let’s take a quick look at some of deals he’s pulled off, specifically, those that have a Miggy Tejada-esque impact (Caveat: I think we can safely assume that Drayton is one of the most meddling owners in baseball, so this needs to be considered when appraising GM performance).

11/7/07 - Acquired OF Michael Bourn, nonroster 3B Michael Costanzo and RHP Geoff Geary from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Brad Lidge and SS Eric Bruntlett.

• Bourn has been Bourn: good speed, lots of SBs, and good D. His 697 OPS is Kaz Matsu-esque, though. In other words, he’s like Assmass with speed in CF.
• Michael Costanzo: Became part of the Tejada deal. Struggling to make contact in AAA, and a B/B- level prospect.
• Geoff Geary: Has been solid this year, though his BABIP (Batting average balls in play) is entirely unsustainable. Still, he’s been one of our better RPs this year.
• Brad Lidge: Injured, struggling with control, but he’s got a pair of saves and a 0 ERA.
• Eric Bruntlett: Has seen a lot of action thanks to Jimmy Rollins’ injury, which over-exposes him. One of the better utility infielders in the game, and somebody I was sad to see go.

11/16/07 - Acquired RHP Oscar Villarreal from the Braves in exchange for OF Josh Anderson

• Oscar: I really thought this would be Wade’s best deal, but Villareal is looking old and used. I expect some regression to the mean (so he gets better), but that Villareal has seen action in half our games is not a positive sign.
• Josh Anderson is Michael Bourn with less stick.

12/2/07 - Signed free agent 2B Kazuo Matsui to a three-year contract.

• I have not hidden my contempt for this deal. Signing a 32-yo 2b to a 3-year deal who has never hit outside of Coors Field - literally - is disastrous on so many levels. Kaz is due to make his Astros debut tonight.

12/12/07 - Acquired SS Miguel Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for OF Luke Scott, RHP Matt Albers, LHP Troy Patton, RHP Dennis Sarfate and 3B Mike Costanzo; Claimed RHP Ryan Houston off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays; Did not offer a 2008 contract to SS Adam Everett, making him a free agent.

• Tejeda is playing like he’s 25, though he’s really 34.
• Luke Scott: Scott scuffled horribly in the 1st half of 2007, but he put up a 978 OPS in the 2nd half. This year, he’s at 1.056. You shouldn’t be surprised.
• Albers: Was one of my favorite pitchers to watch last year thanks to his 95 MPH fastball that darted. He was pretty awful in 2007, but he’s been outstanding in the early going in Baltimore. I think he’s a legit #2 or #3 starter with his stuff.
• Troy Patton: dead.
• Sarate was outstanding for us at the end of 2007, but he has struggled with Baltimore.
• Costanzo, again, has struggled for contact.

12/14/07 - Acquired RHP Jose Valverde from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for INF Chris Burke and RHP Juan Gutierrez and RHP Chad Qualls.

• Jose Valverde: The Latino Lidge (except that, you know, Lidge has been good)
• Chris Burke: Has been awful in a utility role, that I do not think suits him.
• Gutierrez: Especially considering park context, he has been a very solid starter for the Tucson Sidewinders. Still no more than a #3 or #4 starter, but he’s got some potential.
• Qualls: Same as it ever was with Qualls, who is still one of the top middle relievers in the game. Has also picked up a save to go with that 0 ERA.

So, what’s been the effect?

IF: Gaining Tejada and Matsui > losing Burke, Bruntlett, and Adam Everett. Signing Matsui made Burke expendable, and Everett was canned after the Tejada deal. However, we took on about $15MM in salary with this exchange, so it did come with a substantial opportunity cost on the rest of the roster. Still, an easy win.

OF: Losing Scott, Anderson > gaining Bourn. Sorry, but this is pretty easy. Yes, we do gain team speed and, obviously, we get better D in CF. But, this isn’t enough to off-set the difference in runs produced between Scott and Bourn. It was the Lidge trade that made Scott available.

SP: Losing Gutierrez, Albers, Patton > well, nothing. Huge losses here. One can say, wait, we signed Shawn Chacon! We could’ve signed Chacon regardless. Even with Patton’s injury, we do not have two arms like Gutierrez and Albers outside of Nieve. Tremendously adverse impact on our depth.

RP: Losing Lidge, Qualls, Sarfate > gaining Geary, Valverde, Villareal. Lidge is, and will be, better than Valverde. One can talk about how Lidge was necessary to get Bourn, but I don’t think that deal was positive. Villareal makes it close, but the dude has got to keep the ball in the yard.

Summary: Yes, we got a helluva lot better offensively at SS and defensively at 2b, but at what price? Our OF is weaker, out pitching is thinner, and our relievers are explosive. Sure, one *could* say we did a heckuva job shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic, but I still believe these moves mean a net negative.

It’s not even three weeks into the season, though, and I am just some damn blogger in his mother’s basement who doesn’t really enjoy baseball because I look at stats (this has a point).

Source for trade info: mlb.com

Note: The format came out kinda funky. If this bothers you, please let me know.

Jose de Jesus Ortiz, quite possibly the only chron writer who doesn’t make me physically ill (and I rather enjoy him, actually), reports today that Miguel Tejada, that beacon of righteousness, is a big fat liar. OK, perhaps I’m being harsh (duh!). I do agree with Ortiz’ blog-based sentiment that, perhaps, lying wasn’t such a bad thing. And, all of his legal documents show his correct age. However, this should have all been cleared up many years ago, at least by the Age-Gate controversy, but it wasn’t.

In one of my first posts on this nascent blog, I expressed doubt about Tejada’s age. Doubts as to Tejada’s age have been around for several years. Considering the normal peak for hitters is between 26-30 years old, adding two years to his age makes his career path follow historical patterns more closely.

So what? Blah blah blah, bfd, you calloused old under-sexed alcoholic bitter old MF, what does this mean to me?

To put it in perspective, instead of having him tied up over his age 32 and 33 seasons, it’s now his 34 and 35 seasons. And, now that we are in the post-roid era, we’ll have a more normal player production curve. Offensively, we know that players have a tendency to tail off after their age 32 season.

Last year was Tejada’s lowest OPS since his 2001 season, but he also showed a considerable power drop-off. Adding two years means that this is more likely a trend - the declining numbers - than it was a statistical variance.

Finally, let me add that Ed Wade deserves even more scrutiny after this deal. Pulling the trigger the day before the Mitchell Report, and then likely knowing Tejada’s correct age, is poor management. You can try to convince me otherwise, but good luck. It was this deal that soured me on the Stros’ hopes for the season, and now I’m closer to flat-out pissed.

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In today’s action, the Astros staff gave up four HRs in an ugly effort today. Miggy celebrated his pair of birthday’s today by homering, as well. I wonder if he gets two cakes?

Wednesday nights are tough for me - it’s an important family night - so I didn’t get to see the game yesterday. But how nice was it to see some goose eggs on Roy’s linescore? The Phillies, even without Rollins, are a solid offensive squad. Yesterday’s outing was a boost for me (and, you know, it’s really all about me).

Edit: Nate Silver re-ran Tejada’s PECOTA projections after adding on two years (sub required).  The take away is that there is not a huge difference in his 2008 numbers - though it’s not statistically insignificant, but the new age lowers his overall value 40% from here on out.  That’s the performance curve drop-off I talk about above.