
Let’s revisit those ‘08 NL Central predictions I so courageously laid out for y’all the other day:
1. St. Louis
2. Cincinnati
3. Chicago
4. Milwaukee
5. Houston
6. Pittsburgh
One thing you’ll soon learn about me is that I’m generally a pessimist when it comes to most things (I call it being a realist, but whatever), sports being no exception. But I’m also quite proud of my Fanhood, and therefore force myself to be eternally optimistic at the beginning of every season (being a loyal St. Louis Rams fan kind of forces a guy to be like that…man, we suck). On top of that, I went into this blog knowing I would have be THE Cardinals apologist and defender in blog dominated by Astros fans, so I couldn’t resist the desire to make a splash and fire the first shot because I know full well what’s coming from you guys all season long. But I’m going to gladly take that ball and run with it because most of all, I LOVE talkin’ baseball with other knowledgeable fans, especially fellow NL Central followers. I think we’re all going to have a great love/hate relationship going on here. No doubt I’ll have a pro-Cardinals twist going on, but I imagine most of the time you’ll find I calls ‘em as I sees ‘em with a very level head. And I know the first time I hit you with a take like “Kyle Lohse could be a steal for us”/”Troy Glaus isn’t a total pussy,” you’ll remind me how totally wrong I am. All that being said, I give you my “real” ‘08 NL Central predictions:
1. Cincinnati (87-75)
Like some of the other so-called experts, I see these guys as a team on the rise. They have some guys that have played together a while and seemed poised to make a run. I think Dunn/Griffey give them 70 combined HRs again, Corey Patterson actually has a decent year in CF (if not, prospect Bruce is waiting for his job), Edwin Encarnacion has somewhat of a breakout year at 3B, and they continue to get great play up the middle from Phillips and Gonzalez. But as we all know, it’s their improved pitching that’s put them back on the map–Harang is solid, Arroyo should bounce back, and everyone seems eager to see if Volquez and Cueto can build on their outstanding Spring Training numbers. I think finally having a real closer for the 9th inning may be the thing that improves this club the most–they may have overpaid for Francisco Cordero to get him, but given their struggles in the 9th inning the past few years, I say it’s going to prove to be money well spent (while at the same time hurting Milwaukee). Once again, Dusty Baker seems to land at the right time and get some undeserved credit because this team is in a great position right now.
2. Chicago (83-79)
I think the pundits out there saying it’s finally their time to win a championship are crazy, but there’s just too much offensive firepower there for them to not finish second in this division. A great blend of proven hitters and up-and-coming offensive talent. I’m not real big on their pitching–I think after Zambrano there’s not much to be excited about (Hill/Lilly/Dempster? Woo friggin’ hoo.) Wood is going to flop as the closer, just as he has flopped at life following his rookie campaign. I think they’ll finish around .500 and not even be in real contention for the Wild Card (which is probably headed to the NL East runner-up).
3. St. Louis (81-81)
Saying they have a shot at the division is ludicrous, no doubt about that. .500 might even be unreachable with our starting pitching. But I really do believe that all of this talk of 5th place or even finishing off the plank behind the Pirates is just dead wrong. Why? I really think we have the best bullpen in the division–Milwaukee should, but GagMe was a waste of money and losing Cordero is going to hurt. Yes, the starting pitching sucks–but it pretty much does all throughout this division. I realize to even finish in third is going to require getting something out of Mulder or Carpenter on down the road, which is certainly no sure thing.
I think our offense, while certainly not on par with the Cubbies, Reds, or even the Astros, is going to be a whole lot better than last year–I’m sold on Ankiel having a great year (25-30HR/90RBI) and Skip Schumaker actually turning out to be a huge upgrade over Eckstein leading off. Yes, we all know Troy Glaus is a big ol’ flappin’ pussy. But after barely being able to stomach watching Scott Rolen’s sorry ass last year, I think my boy Troy outproduces The Whiner offensively–even if he only plays 130 games. There’s no way Adam Kennedy can play worse than he did last year, so hopefully 2B is a slight improvement as well. I think hope Pujols can play through all this elbow bidness and put up his regular MVP-type numbers and carry us.
4. Milwaukee (76-86)
This team should’ve made the playoffs last year. While many think they’re a team on the verge–kind of like those young Cleveland Indians the last few years–I think they missed their shot and are going to be a disappointment this year. Fielder is certainly a legitmate masher who will produce. Braun? Great young hitter, but I see a Ryan Zimmerman type sophomore year for him. I’ll never be sold on Hardy/Weeks, and Corey Hart was a one-year wonder. Like with most teams, it comes down to pitching, and while the Brew Crew seems to have more than others–Sheets will probably have a great year since he’ll be leaving town in ‘09–Suppan and Bush don’t do much for me behind him. Parra/Gallardo/Villanueva? Maybe one of them will emerge, but certainly not all three. Like I mentioned before, their bullpen won’t come close to matching what it did last year. I expect a huge step back for Yost’s boys and predict him to be the first manager fired in ‘08.
5. Astros (75-87)
If all the veterans stayed healthy, this team could hit just enough to stay in contention for a while. But with everyone approaching 35 years old, I’m just afraid there’ll be a few too many trips to the DL for the ‘Stros to hang. This team seems to have let itself become a lot like those late 90s Orioles teams in that it got real old real soon after a nice string of playoff appearances, but was forced to stick it out for a couple of extra years because of so many bloated long-term contracts. The starting pitching? Yikes. Not that the Cards are one bit better, but when Chacon is your #4 starter, you have some serious issues.
I do like that Hunter Pence fella, however. I actually hope he goes 30/30 for you guys. I also hope Carlos Lee chokes on a fish taco.
6. Pirates (62-100)
These guys are shitty. Not much else to say. Both the Cards or Astros could sure use an Ian Snell, huh?