I’m not a Reds fan.

I don’t dislike them, per se, though I did root for the A’s in the 1990 World Series (note: damn you, Billy Hatcher).  More accurately, I just don’t care for them one way or the other.  I like Ken Griffey, Jr. and Brandon Phillips, but I dislike Adam Dunn and Geoff Jenkins…it’s a wash.

That’s why I can say with no worry of you calling me a “homer” that Jay Bruce is completely fucking amazing.  Seriously, through 7 games (with the seventh still in progress), he has 3 HRs, 2 SBs, 7 RBIs, and is hitting .583.  (I don’t have his updated SLB/OBP, but they are other-worldly, too.)  He has also looked incredibly solid in CF and has shown a flair for the dramatic, scoring the winning run in extra innings one night and then hitting a walk-off HR the next.

Now, of course he’s not going to hit .500 for the season and, yes, pitchers will figure him out a bit the second time he faces each of them.  But, that said, I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to project him for .320, 20 HR, 15 SB, and 80 RBIs.  Oh, and a ROY trophy.

I think I have a mancrush.

Fascinating post by Josh Kalk at The Hardball Times today talking about the aging curve of fastballs (and, wow, does this intro look like pingback spam or what?).

Even though he has plenty of necessary disclaimers on the data, for those of us who watch baseball, the trend shouldn’t be surprising.  What Josh has done is quantify that which we all kinda figured: pitchers throw harder sooner and slower later.  The peak at 29 and subsequent steep drop-off aren’t really surprising, either.  I mean, it just seemed like this happened.

It’ll be hard to fully quantify the aging curve drop-off, though.  As pitchers get older, they rack up tons of pitches on their arms.  As they get older, they become pitchers instead of just throwers.  One can put in a lesser effort versus the Patron Saint of Outs Neifi Perez than they can Lance Berkman.  What role does the weather play?  Situational pitching?  Number of pitches?

But what does it all mean?  Harder throwers tend to get more strikeouts.  Can this be used, for example, when you are up by two runs in the eighth, but the other team now has guys on 2nd and 3rd with no outs?  Wouldn’t this be an opportune time for a strikeout?  Can we use pitch counts along with the curve to better predict performance?  You gotta think Nate Silver, inventor of PECOTA, drooled on his keyboard when he saw this.

Being a geek, it’s fun to get geeky with information like this.  And it’s also fun to think about how much Joe Morgan’s head exploded when he saw this.

Title in honor of Edward Lorenz.

Ed Wade took over as GM of the Astros in September 2007. From points raised in the Lying Liar discussion, let’s take a quick look at some of deals he’s pulled off, specifically, those that have a Miggy Tejada-esque impact (Caveat: I think we can safely assume that Drayton is one of the most meddling owners in baseball, so this needs to be considered when appraising GM performance).

11/7/07 - Acquired OF Michael Bourn, nonroster 3B Michael Costanzo and RHP Geoff Geary from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Brad Lidge and SS Eric Bruntlett.

• Bourn has been Bourn: good speed, lots of SBs, and good D. His 697 OPS is Kaz Matsu-esque, though. In other words, he’s like Assmass with speed in CF.
• Michael Costanzo: Became part of the Tejada deal. Struggling to make contact in AAA, and a B/B- level prospect.
• Geoff Geary: Has been solid this year, though his BABIP (Batting average balls in play) is entirely unsustainable. Still, he’s been one of our better RPs this year.
• Brad Lidge: Injured, struggling with control, but he’s got a pair of saves and a 0 ERA.
• Eric Bruntlett: Has seen a lot of action thanks to Jimmy Rollins’ injury, which over-exposes him. One of the better utility infielders in the game, and somebody I was sad to see go.

11/16/07 - Acquired RHP Oscar Villarreal from the Braves in exchange for OF Josh Anderson

• Oscar: I really thought this would be Wade’s best deal, but Villareal is looking old and used. I expect some regression to the mean (so he gets better), but that Villareal has seen action in half our games is not a positive sign.
• Josh Anderson is Michael Bourn with less stick.

12/2/07 - Signed free agent 2B Kazuo Matsui to a three-year contract.

• I have not hidden my contempt for this deal. Signing a 32-yo 2b to a 3-year deal who has never hit outside of Coors Field - literally - is disastrous on so many levels. Kaz is due to make his Astros debut tonight.

12/12/07 - Acquired SS Miguel Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for OF Luke Scott, RHP Matt Albers, LHP Troy Patton, RHP Dennis Sarfate and 3B Mike Costanzo; Claimed RHP Ryan Houston off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays; Did not offer a 2008 contract to SS Adam Everett, making him a free agent.

• Tejeda is playing like he’s 25, though he’s really 34.
• Luke Scott: Scott scuffled horribly in the 1st half of 2007, but he put up a 978 OPS in the 2nd half. This year, he’s at 1.056. You shouldn’t be surprised.
• Albers: Was one of my favorite pitchers to watch last year thanks to his 95 MPH fastball that darted. He was pretty awful in 2007, but he’s been outstanding in the early going in Baltimore. I think he’s a legit #2 or #3 starter with his stuff.
• Troy Patton: dead.
• Sarate was outstanding for us at the end of 2007, but he has struggled with Baltimore.
• Costanzo, again, has struggled for contact.

12/14/07 - Acquired RHP Jose Valverde from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for INF Chris Burke and RHP Juan Gutierrez and RHP Chad Qualls.

• Jose Valverde: The Latino Lidge (except that, you know, Lidge has been good)
• Chris Burke: Has been awful in a utility role, that I do not think suits him.
• Gutierrez: Especially considering park context, he has been a very solid starter for the Tucson Sidewinders. Still no more than a #3 or #4 starter, but he’s got some potential.
• Qualls: Same as it ever was with Qualls, who is still one of the top middle relievers in the game. Has also picked up a save to go with that 0 ERA.

So, what’s been the effect?

IF: Gaining Tejada and Matsui > losing Burke, Bruntlett, and Adam Everett. Signing Matsui made Burke expendable, and Everett was canned after the Tejada deal. However, we took on about $15MM in salary with this exchange, so it did come with a substantial opportunity cost on the rest of the roster. Still, an easy win.

OF: Losing Scott, Anderson > gaining Bourn. Sorry, but this is pretty easy. Yes, we do gain team speed and, obviously, we get better D in CF. But, this isn’t enough to off-set the difference in runs produced between Scott and Bourn. It was the Lidge trade that made Scott available.

SP: Losing Gutierrez, Albers, Patton > well, nothing. Huge losses here. One can say, wait, we signed Shawn Chacon! We could’ve signed Chacon regardless. Even with Patton’s injury, we do not have two arms like Gutierrez and Albers outside of Nieve. Tremendously adverse impact on our depth.

RP: Losing Lidge, Qualls, Sarfate > gaining Geary, Valverde, Villareal. Lidge is, and will be, better than Valverde. One can talk about how Lidge was necessary to get Bourn, but I don’t think that deal was positive. Villareal makes it close, but the dude has got to keep the ball in the yard.

Summary: Yes, we got a helluva lot better offensively at SS and defensively at 2b, but at what price? Our OF is weaker, out pitching is thinner, and our relievers are explosive. Sure, one *could* say we did a heckuva job shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic, but I still believe these moves mean a net negative.

It’s not even three weeks into the season, though, and I am just some damn blogger in his mother’s basement who doesn’t really enjoy baseball because I look at stats (this has a point).

Source for trade info: mlb.com

Note: The format came out kinda funky. If this bothers you, please let me know.

St. Louis Cardinals (5-1) @ Houston Astros (2-5)

Round 1:

Todd Wellemeyer (1-0) 

v.

Wandy Rodriguez (0-0)

Well, it sure didn’t take long for all of us to jump into our first series match-up since we started this here thing we call WTP.  Luckily for me, I have the advantage of being able to gloat just a little as our teams sit at opposite ends of the NL Central standings going into tonight’s game.  5-1?!?  WOW!  What a start!  Yes, as I stated here, I truly believed that these Cardinals would fair much better than what most of the so-called experts were predicting–mainly because I believed that Rick Ankiel’s hitting from last year was no fluke, thought our middle infield would fair far better as a whole (y’all don’t realize the intense hatred I had for that little league “shortstop” we carried for far too long), still thought we had the best bullpen in the division, and really loved the way we competed and won game after game to close out Spring Training.  But this?!?  The best starting pitching in the league after Week 1?!?  Granted, it’s only Week 1 and the starters will eventually come back to earth, not to mention we had the luxury of opening our season at Busch II, but I certainly could not have dreamed of a better start to the ‘08 campaign. 

So, other than the phenomenal performances turned in by this makeshift rotation, who else has impressed?  Obviously, it’s Rick Ankiel.  This mancrush is just getting out of hand now.  The guy just continues to come up big in clutch situations, hit for power, and his success versus lefties is something that I didn’t see coming.  His outfield defense has even been far better than first advertised; his catch in the 8th inning yesterday was Jimmy Edmonds-esque (minus the bad first step).  Adam Kennedy, at least so far, looks much more like the guy that played in Anaheim, er, Los Angeles, er whateverthefuck (as opposed to the assclown that showed up last year).  Kyle McClellan, the local St. Louis product, is proving to have a lot of grit and guts coming out of the ‘pen as he offsets not having Russ Springer down there with Ryan Franklin setting up for Izzy.  And Brian Barton, the Rule 5 castaway from Matty’s Indians, has continued to hit and may have even bumped Skip Schumaker from the leadoff and starting outfield spot.  Hell, LaRussa even went with the same exact line-up yesterday that he used the day before!  All this Redbird talk and I didn’t even have to mention that Pujols guy.  Amazing stuff so far!

**Update: Troy Glaus is still a big flappin’ pussy, but at least he’s turned in some decent glove work the past two games. 

So, what’s up with those Stros besides injuries to Berkman and Wigginton, being completely owned by Derek Lee over the weekend, and Your Boy Roy giving up 21 hits in his first two starts?  The one-run losses have to be frustrating–looks like you guys have been in every game this year.  Any anal fissures updates?  Tejada is actually lookin’ good out there for ya.

In the nascent days of this site, I was quickly outed as perhaps the only optimist about the Astros on our staff. Perhaps I’m delusional, driven mad by the Jose Cruz t-shirt that I’ve worn every day since September 14th, 1986, to the point that it’s difficult to see where I end and the shirt begins. That shirt went through puberty with me, and if that makes me crazy, then I don’t want to be sane. I do think that there’s a reasonable argument to be made that it won’t be ALL wailing and gnashing of teeth for the Stros this year, so allow me to put on my seersucker suit and straw hat and begin my soliloquy.

/tugs at lapels

I may not be a big city lawyer, folks. I may not have any fancy acronyms or statistics to reinforce my arguments, but I do know one thing: the Astros sure as hell aren’t the Pirates. And that’s something we can all be thankful for. Always think of folks less fortunate than yourself, that’s what my pappy always said, God rest his soul. Before you go to bed tonight, say a prayer for little Ian Snell; that boy can pitch some wildfire, but he may never be on a 75 win team. You think about that.

Lot of folks running around these days talking ’bout how the Astros ain’t got any pitching, and the offense has anal fissures, and the bullpen is two pieces of twine and Jose Valverde, and on the surface, you might be right about some of that. The anal fissures, to be sure.

/wipes forehead with monogrammed handkerchief

Shew. But let me tell you a few things about Ed Wade. See, Eddie ain’t too popular in Philadelphia, that’s for sure, and he’s starting to develop a reputation around these parts, too. But Eddie hasn’t been employed for this long around MLB by being dumb. Like it or not, the man had a plan, and he stuck to it. These Astros he’s brought in are fast, and good with the glove, and that was the stated off-season goal: speed and defense. Sometimes shit happens, like your lump-ass left fielder crushes the leg of the best defensive shortstop in baseball, and you have to let the rangy kid who couldn’t hit worth a damn but could make Gold Glove plays look routine go off to find himself in Minnesota. And while the guy you replace him with has a cannon for an arm (and a rocket for a bat), you’re gonna find yourself missing the ease that ol’ AE brought to the game.

But that’s the only exception to Eddie’s plan. Our little Oriental friend with the butt trouble, well, some say he’s a product of a high-altitude environment. Point to numbers, to PECOTA and OPS; well, I say PECOTA is a kind of veal, and OPS was an unheard hippity-hop song from 1990! You see, of course anyone’s road numbers in the NL West are going to look bad outside Coor’s; hell, every other stadium in that division (apart from Pac Bell) is a hitter’s nightmare. You try to have a road OPS over .900 when you play a large portion of your road games at Petco Park. Like my momma always said, you can’t catch a coon-hound with grease.

We never knew what the hell momma was saying half the time. Must’ve been all that time working in a lead paint factory that did it to her.

And let’s not forget the kids now! Kids are our future, our “hope” like that Osama guy likes to say. Hunter Pence! Now that’s a baseball player! So long as he doesn’t pop his damn fool head off diving over the right field railing to grab a foul ball, that boy’s gonna make men weep and women swoon (if they like guys with peanut heads) for years here. He may have a sophomore slump, but he’s no Luke Scott.

/ducks flying trash

Sorry folks, forgot the reaction that name gets. No, Pence’ll be a .300/30/90 badass before you know it, and he’ll steal him some bases, too. Speaking of stealing bases, I know there’s lots of you who talk about Wily Tavares like he was one step above crippled, what with his low OBP and whatnot, but that boy could disrupt a defense with his speed in ways that were a site to behold; well, Michael Bourn runs a 4.3 40. That’s NFL fast, and it’ll cause the same kind of hell that Wily T. did, and I will bet any man, woman, child or Chinaman that he’ll have a .390 OPS this season, since he seems to have gotten his free-swinging reputation in check this spring. Seriously, would you really like Lidge back, people?

Now, there ain’t much positive to say about the pitching. There just ain’t. I could tell you about little Wesley Wright, the 13-year old with the elastic arm who could become an eighth inning savior, but when that’s the silver lining in this pitching staff, well, that just about says it all. But I’d ask you to look at something before you say, “Them dumbasses Wade & Purpura traded all the studs on the farm for a flea-bit buncha mules”: let’s look at those studs.

• Jason Hirsh: less than 120 IP in 2007, 5-7 record, 4.81 ERA. Whee doggies! There’s a #2 starter!
• Taylor Bucholz : only 9 starts, mostly worked from the bullpen. Respectable-ish 1.33 WHIP.
• Troy Patton:

And everyone else is either a prospect or a reliever. So there’s really not a lick of good any of the pitchers we sent out of town could do for the 2008 team. Now, the future implications of this kind of thinning are pretty obvious, but I’m more concerned about the lack of position players in the minors right now; it looks like a damned goofball, feel-good comedy down there. When these “ancient” 32 year old offensive mainstays finally hang up their Twinkies and B12 and head home, who’s gonna replace THEM? Pitching prospects are a dime a dozen, but you have to pay bushels of money for a 35 homer-100 RBI slugger.

Well, I best wrap this up. Daisy’ll be calling me from the front porch for a pitcher of lemonade and a basket of her fried chicken. I swear, if I find any of those hard-to-eat thighs in there, I’m gonna beat that woman black and blue. But you need not be blue your own self: these Astros may lose, and they may lose a lot, but they’re gonna win about 77-82 games or so, and they’re gonna be a helluva lot of fun to watch when they’re hitting on all cylinders. Just you trust an old country lawyer on that one, y’hear?

Let’s revisit those ‘08 NL Central predictions I so courageously laid out for y’all the other day:

1. St. Louis
2. Cincinnati
3. Chicago
4. Milwaukee
5. Houston
6. Pittsburgh

One thing you’ll soon learn about me is that I’m generally a pessimist when it comes to most things (I call it being a realist, but whatever), sports being no exception.  But I’m also quite proud of my Fanhood, and therefore force myself to be eternally optimistic at the beginning of every season (being a loyal St. Louis Rams fan kind of forces a guy to be like that…man, we suck).  On top of that, I went into this blog knowing I would have be THE Cardinals apologist and defender in blog dominated by Astros fans, so I couldn’t resist the desire to make a splash and fire the first shot because I know full well what’s coming from you guys all season long.  But I’m going to gladly take that ball and run with it because most of all, I LOVE talkin’ baseball with other knowledgeable fans, especially fellow NL Central followers.  I think we’re all going to have a great love/hate relationship going on here.  No doubt I’ll have a pro-Cardinals twist going on, but I imagine most of the time you’ll find I calls ‘em as I sees ‘em with a very level head.  And I know the first time I hit you with a take like “Kyle Lohse could be a steal for us”/”Troy Glaus isn’t a total pussy,” you’ll remind me how totally wrong I am.  All that being said, I give you my “real” ‘08 NL Central predictions:

1. Cincinnati (87-75)

Like some of the other so-called experts, I see these guys as a team on the rise.  They have some guys that have played together a while and seemed poised to make a run.  I think Dunn/Griffey give them 70 combined HRs again, Corey Patterson actually has a decent year in CF (if not, prospect Bruce is waiting for his job), Edwin Encarnacion has somewhat of a breakout year at 3B, and they continue to get great play up the middle from Phillips and Gonzalez.  But as we all know, it’s their improved pitching that’s put them back on the map–Harang is solid, Arroyo should bounce back, and everyone seems eager to see if Volquez and Cueto can build on their outstanding Spring Training numbers.  I think finally having a real closer for the 9th inning may be the thing that improves this club the most–they may have overpaid for Francisco Cordero to get him, but given their struggles in the 9th inning the past few years, I say it’s going to prove to be money well spent (while at the same time hurting Milwaukee).  Once again, Dusty Baker seems to land at the right time and get some undeserved credit because this team is in a great position right now.

2. Chicago (83-79)

I think the pundits out there saying it’s finally their time to win a championship are crazy, but there’s just too much offensive firepower there for them to not finish second in this division.  A great blend of proven hitters and up-and-coming offensive talent.  I’m not real big on their pitching–I think after Zambrano there’s not much to be excited about (Hill/Lilly/Dempster?  Woo friggin’ hoo.)  Wood is going to flop as the closer, just as he has flopped at life following his rookie campaign.  I think they’ll finish around .500 and not even be in real contention for the Wild Card (which is probably headed to the NL East runner-up).

3. St. Louis (81-81)

Saying they have a shot at the division is ludicrous, no doubt about that.  .500 might even be unreachable with our starting pitching.  But I really do believe that all of this talk of 5th place or even finishing off the plank behind the Pirates is just dead wrong.  Why?  I really think we have the best bullpen in the division–Milwaukee should, but GagMe was a waste of money and losing Cordero is going to hurt.  Yes, the starting pitching sucks–but it pretty much does all throughout this division.  I realize to even finish in third is going to require getting something out of Mulder or Carpenter on down the road, which is certainly no sure thing.

I think our offense, while certainly not on par with the Cubbies, Reds, or even the Astros, is going to be a whole lot better than last year–I’m sold on Ankiel having a great year (25-30HR/90RBI) and Skip Schumaker actually turning out to be a huge upgrade over Eckstein leading off.  Yes, we all know Troy Glaus is a big ol’ flappin’ pussy.  But after barely being able to stomach watching Scott Rolen’s sorry ass last year, I think my boy Troy outproduces The Whiner offensively–even if he only plays 130 games.  There’s no way Adam Kennedy can play worse than he did last year, so hopefully 2B is a slight improvement as well.  I think hope Pujols can play through all this elbow bidness and put up his regular MVP-type numbers and carry us. 

4. Milwaukee (76-86)

This team should’ve made the playoffs last year.  While many think they’re a team on the verge–kind of like those young Cleveland Indians the last few years–I think they missed their shot and are going to be a disappointment this year.  Fielder is certainly a legitmate masher who will produce.  Braun?  Great young hitter, but I see a Ryan Zimmerman type sophomore year for him.  I’ll never be sold on Hardy/Weeks, and Corey Hart was a one-year wonder.  Like with most teams, it comes down to pitching, and while the Brew Crew seems to have more than others–Sheets will probably have a great year since he’ll be leaving town in ‘09–Suppan and Bush don’t do much for me behind him.  Parra/Gallardo/Villanueva?  Maybe one of them will emerge, but certainly not all three.  Like I mentioned before, their bullpen won’t come close to matching what it did last year.  I expect a huge step back for Yost’s boys and predict him to be the first manager fired in ‘08.

5. Astros (75-87)

If all the veterans stayed healthy, this team could hit just enough to stay in contention for a while.  But with everyone approaching 35 years old, I’m just afraid there’ll be a few too many trips to the DL for the ‘Stros to hang.  This team seems to have let itself become a lot like those late 90s Orioles teams in that it got real old real soon after a nice string of playoff appearances, but was forced to stick it out for a couple of extra years because of so many bloated long-term contracts.  The starting pitching?  Yikes.  Not that the Cards are one bit better, but when Chacon is your #4 starter, you have some serious issues. 

I do like that Hunter Pence fella, however.  I actually hope he goes 30/30 for you guys.  I also hope Carlos Lee chokes on a fish taco.

6. Pirates (62-100)

These guys are shitty.  Not much else to say.  Both the Cards or Astros could sure use an Ian Snell, huh?