Title in honor of Edward Lorenz.

Ed Wade took over as GM of the Astros in September 2007. From points raised in the Lying Liar discussion, let’s take a quick look at some of deals he’s pulled off, specifically, those that have a Miggy Tejada-esque impact (Caveat: I think we can safely assume that Drayton is one of the most meddling owners in baseball, so this needs to be considered when appraising GM performance).

11/7/07 - Acquired OF Michael Bourn, nonroster 3B Michael Costanzo and RHP Geoff Geary from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Brad Lidge and SS Eric Bruntlett.

• Bourn has been Bourn: good speed, lots of SBs, and good D. His 697 OPS is Kaz Matsu-esque, though. In other words, he’s like Assmass with speed in CF.
• Michael Costanzo: Became part of the Tejada deal. Struggling to make contact in AAA, and a B/B- level prospect.
• Geoff Geary: Has been solid this year, though his BABIP (Batting average balls in play) is entirely unsustainable. Still, he’s been one of our better RPs this year.
• Brad Lidge: Injured, struggling with control, but he’s got a pair of saves and a 0 ERA.
• Eric Bruntlett: Has seen a lot of action thanks to Jimmy Rollins’ injury, which over-exposes him. One of the better utility infielders in the game, and somebody I was sad to see go.

11/16/07 - Acquired RHP Oscar Villarreal from the Braves in exchange for OF Josh Anderson

• Oscar: I really thought this would be Wade’s best deal, but Villareal is looking old and used. I expect some regression to the mean (so he gets better), but that Villareal has seen action in half our games is not a positive sign.
• Josh Anderson is Michael Bourn with less stick.

12/2/07 - Signed free agent 2B Kazuo Matsui to a three-year contract.

• I have not hidden my contempt for this deal. Signing a 32-yo 2b to a 3-year deal who has never hit outside of Coors Field - literally - is disastrous on so many levels. Kaz is due to make his Astros debut tonight.

12/12/07 - Acquired SS Miguel Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for OF Luke Scott, RHP Matt Albers, LHP Troy Patton, RHP Dennis Sarfate and 3B Mike Costanzo; Claimed RHP Ryan Houston off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays; Did not offer a 2008 contract to SS Adam Everett, making him a free agent.

• Tejeda is playing like he’s 25, though he’s really 34.
• Luke Scott: Scott scuffled horribly in the 1st half of 2007, but he put up a 978 OPS in the 2nd half. This year, he’s at 1.056. You shouldn’t be surprised.
• Albers: Was one of my favorite pitchers to watch last year thanks to his 95 MPH fastball that darted. He was pretty awful in 2007, but he’s been outstanding in the early going in Baltimore. I think he’s a legit #2 or #3 starter with his stuff.
• Troy Patton: dead.
• Sarate was outstanding for us at the end of 2007, but he has struggled with Baltimore.
• Costanzo, again, has struggled for contact.

12/14/07 - Acquired RHP Jose Valverde from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for INF Chris Burke and RHP Juan Gutierrez and RHP Chad Qualls.

• Jose Valverde: The Latino Lidge (except that, you know, Lidge has been good)
• Chris Burke: Has been awful in a utility role, that I do not think suits him.
• Gutierrez: Especially considering park context, he has been a very solid starter for the Tucson Sidewinders. Still no more than a #3 or #4 starter, but he’s got some potential.
• Qualls: Same as it ever was with Qualls, who is still one of the top middle relievers in the game. Has also picked up a save to go with that 0 ERA.

So, what’s been the effect?

IF: Gaining Tejada and Matsui > losing Burke, Bruntlett, and Adam Everett. Signing Matsui made Burke expendable, and Everett was canned after the Tejada deal. However, we took on about $15MM in salary with this exchange, so it did come with a substantial opportunity cost on the rest of the roster. Still, an easy win.

OF: Losing Scott, Anderson > gaining Bourn. Sorry, but this is pretty easy. Yes, we do gain team speed and, obviously, we get better D in CF. But, this isn’t enough to off-set the difference in runs produced between Scott and Bourn. It was the Lidge trade that made Scott available.

SP: Losing Gutierrez, Albers, Patton > well, nothing. Huge losses here. One can say, wait, we signed Shawn Chacon! We could’ve signed Chacon regardless. Even with Patton’s injury, we do not have two arms like Gutierrez and Albers outside of Nieve. Tremendously adverse impact on our depth.

RP: Losing Lidge, Qualls, Sarfate > gaining Geary, Valverde, Villareal. Lidge is, and will be, better than Valverde. One can talk about how Lidge was necessary to get Bourn, but I don’t think that deal was positive. Villareal makes it close, but the dude has got to keep the ball in the yard.

Summary: Yes, we got a helluva lot better offensively at SS and defensively at 2b, but at what price? Our OF is weaker, out pitching is thinner, and our relievers are explosive. Sure, one *could* say we did a heckuva job shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic, but I still believe these moves mean a net negative.

It’s not even three weeks into the season, though, and I am just some damn blogger in his mother’s basement who doesn’t really enjoy baseball because I look at stats (this has a point).

Source for trade info: mlb.com

Note: The format came out kinda funky. If this bothers you, please let me know.

The attempt at live-blogging didn’t go off so well. I learned that it’s a helluva lot easier to blog when you aren’t being social at the same time. Oh well.

Some completely random and quick Opening Day thoughts (The Man has me on a huge hamster wheel today):

* Dear Pirates: Trade Xavier Nady now. He serves no purpose on your team, and his value will never be higher.

* What vaunted offense? Jake Peavy shut down the Astros easily. Sure, that’s a tough assignment for any team, but I just don’t think the offense will be nearly as tough as thought. Add on that we are extremely right-handed heavy, I think we’ll be especially ineffective against righties. Oh, and Ass-mass got the start. Well done, Coop, well done.

* DisplacedTexan and Nash both mentioned Eric Gagne and Kerry Wood imploding, which was definitely fun. But here’s the difference between good roster management and player development than not.

- Home-grown Carlos Marmol whiffed three of the four batters he faced. Even though he took the loss, Bob Howry can close, and Michael Wuertz has closer stuff. Wood may not hold on to the closer role, but there’s three legit backups if he falters.

- Milwaukee can fall back on David Riske and Derrick Turnbow, both of whom have previously closed.

- So, what happens if Valverde gets hurt? Who becomes the Stros closer? Doug Brocail? Shawn Chacon? Oscar Villareal? Joe Sambito??? Crap.

So, I decided to take a different route with this after Part I, the offense. There’s a ton to look at, and I want to be as exhaustive (boring) as possible. Now, I’ll take a look at the pitching. You’ll find your barf bag in the seat back in front of you. There are no emergency exits.

Now that “Got bomb?” Williams has been sliced off the roster, we actually look better…which is sad. Let’s start with the good news: Roy Oswalt. And is there a more steady pitcher in the majors than Oswalt? I would argue long and hard (heheheh, long….hard…heheheheh) that the answer is no. He might be 31 this year, and he might not have the giddyup on his fastball he once did, but he’s the working definition of ruthlessly efficient. He’s got some groinal issues (as does most of the WTP staff), but he’ll be good for 33 above-average starts. Not bad for a short, right handed pitcher.

That ends the good news.

Jose Valverde is ranked second for VORP for the Astros staff by PECOTA. The entire staff. The closer. Oh, we are so screwed. Anyway, Wade acquired Valverde because he comes with that shiny closer smell, but we gave up a shitload of schwag to do so. Valverde saved 47 games last year, but his pitching pattern reminds me of Bob Knepper: one good year, one bad year, one good year, one bad year, and so on. That’s not to say he’ll be bad this year, but I don’t trust pitchers like this any farther than I can throw them (and Valverde is a serious fat ass). I have this suspicion that Valverde will be Wade’s legacy.

Next is Oscar Villareal, who is the best acquisition we made in off-season. He’s bounced back well from a serious abuse episode with the D-backs, and he could easily be the second best pitcher on the team next year. If he pitches better than he has in the spring. But, remember, this dude is a middle reliever.

Jeez, I am three pitchers in and ready to down a gallon of bleach. Speaking of bleach, next up is Wandy. There were some seriously intriguing, yet confusing, numbers from Wandy last year. His K-rate spiked, which is a fantastic indicator, but I can’t figure out why. He did look better, especially with his curve and change. If his numbers are for real, then he’ll beat his PECOTA numbers, but that’s a big if. Nevertheless, he showed a ton of improvement in 2007.

So, that’s two starters and two relievers. There are eight more guys to go, but I can’t do it. The rest that made the 25-man roster are Shawn Chacon (bombastic!), Brandon Backe (not a joke), Dave “Molotov cocktail” Borkowski, Doug Brocail and his 13.00 ERA in the spring, Geoff “ROOGY” Geary, Chris Sampson (and his 9+ spring ERA), Brian “Scuffy” Moehler (nuf ced), and Rule V pickup Wesley Wright.

Excluding Oswalt, our pitchers were good for a 7.16 ERA and a 7.72 RA in the spring, and we don’t train in Arizona. That, my friends, wouldn’t even make the 1930 Phillies proud.

This might be the worst pitching staff, including Oswalt, in my lifetime. We are that bad. Right now, PECOTA has us giving up 813 runs, but I think that total could be closer to 900 than not. I think the pitching is truly that bad, and when you consider that we have nothing on the farm to call up, it could get even uglier.

In the next instalment, I’ll look at our farm and intangibles.

Edit: Thanks to the Crawfish Boxes for info on the 25-man roster. Sorry for the dis the first time around.

One nominee for our WTP Whipping Boy has been released.

Woody Williams, the flammable starter, was evidently undone by the continuous, extreme whiplash and was released by my beloved Astros today. At least this hangover of Tim Purpura’s gross incompetence will cost us $6.5MM this year thanks to the idiotic contract Williams signed last year.

This was one of those signings that was trouble from the start: a flyball pitcher with homerun tendencies, turning 41, and obviously losing his stuff, starting half his games in the Juice Box. I gotta admit that that strategy’s nothing if not optimistic. In just 160 IP in the Juice Box, Woody bonered up 32 HRs, an almost Ken Dixon type pace.

Fortunately, the Stros have a well-stocked farm system of replacement possibilities who can step in for Woody. What? It’s not 1991?

Dammit.