It was another above-.500 week for the hometown heroes, but the first thing that catches your eye is:

Runs Scored:  30

Runs Against: 40

Sure, most of that differential was Sunday’s blowout craptacular, but that’s still a ton of runs to give up in a single week.

Good news first:

Carlos Lee: 12 RBI in 25 ABs on the week?  That’s like *mumble to self for a moment* a whole shitload of RBI for one week.  Puma deserves man-crush status, and there’s been a lot of love for Pence and Matsui, but Lee has been dead-on tough all year.  RBI is a team stat, but driving in 12 out of 30 runs for the week is uh-mazing.

Puma: 880 OPS on the week, but five runs scored.  He’s starting to come down from his high, but he’s still playing extremely well (though, and is it me?, or is his defense at first sometimes adventurous?).

Hunter Pence: Three bombs and five runs.  He’s recovering from his first month slump well.

Michael Bourn: An 800 OPS?  Five SBs with no caught stealing?  But even with this week, he had only one BB with seven strikeouts.

 Ty Wiggington?:  Seriously?  Is that six doubles and nine hits in just 17 ABs?  It did seem like he was on 2nd most of the week.

Brandon Backe: His best season is coming after a TJ reconstruction?  Should we goon him up over the winter (kidding!)?

Chris Sampson: He hates him some Cubs, but he got lit up in his second start of the week.  His ERA is 6.04, and he’s only striking out 4.5/9IP. We need to do something about his slot, and quickly.

Shawn Chacon: Wow, what can you say?  He hates the Cubs more than Sampson.  His WHIP and ERA don’t match up well, but I am truly surprised Chacon has been this effective after being lit up like a Christmas tree for most of his career.

Scuffy Moehler???: And then you get two nice starts from Scuffy.  It was a good week to be a Stro starting pitcher.

Wait a minute!  We gave up almost 6 runs a game over the week.  What happened?

The bad:

Roy: Another rough start, giving him 22 HA in just 12 IP in his last two starts…which look a lot like his first couple of weeks of the season.  It’s the hits that worry me the most, which is adding to an atrocious WHIP.  I’m still worried about his health, whether it’s just his hip (last week), his groin (chronic), or something different.

Wesley Wright: Wright in April: 4.15 ERA, 5 BB and 11 K in 8.2 IP.  In May?  7 BB and 3(!) K in 9 IP.  He pitched so well in April that it was hard to remember he’s a Rule V pick, but he has been struggling pretty badly.  In addition, even as bad as his numbers are belie the fact that he’s missing spots.

Dave “Molotov Cocktail”  Borkowski and Fernando”Boom Boom” Nieve: I think it’s safe to say that Nieve needs more seasoning, and Borkowski is done.

Miggy Tejada: 680 OPS.  His power is disappearing, and he still doesn’t draw walks.

Kaz Matsui: 427 OPS, but the silver lining is that he drew four walks.  His huge uptick in walks has kept him valuable.  We need him to sustain.

JR Towles and Brad Ausmus: Dear Mr. Coop, Please either play Towles or send him to AAA.  Either way, keep Ausmus the fuck off the field.  Thank you for your patronage.

Summary:

One of the biggest knocks against Ed Wade when he was hired was that he didn’t know how to piece together a bullpen, and that problem is glowing loudly for the 2008 Astros.  The bullpen is pathetic except for Doug Brocail and Jose Valverde.  Even Oscar Villareal, who I thought would be a great pickup, has sucked ass.  We traded away a ton of our minor league depth in the off-season, and we’ve got almost nothing to tap on the farm.

My first suggestion would be to replace Sampson in the rotation and move him to the pen.  And, if we could, get a second pitcher and move Chacon to he pen, as well (I have this playing with matches feel about Chacon).

Could Roger Clemens be an answer?  I think, if we are serious about making a run, he should be considered.

First, major {hugs} to Matt for the new design. If I wasn’t a married, straight man, I would so fall in love with him.

This week’s edition of Rights and Wrongs will be the last to solely look at the year as a whole. I figure, three weeks in, it’s time to look at things at a micro view from here on out. That said, let’s hit that shit!!!!

Offense:

Ummmm, holy shit? Towles is hitting for major power, Berkman has been good, and Tejada still thinks he’s 25 instead of 104 years old. Yet, Aaron Cook can kick our ass? One of my biggest worries is that Pence and Bourn have whiff rates that would make Dave Kingman blush.

My biggest worry, however, is that (before today’s game) your Houston Astros are dead last in OBP. Last. Done. Dead. As a baseball stat geek, it’s important to know why that’s, ummmmmm, important. Here’s the deal: OPS should be 1.6 OPS + 1 SLG. The reason is that there is really only one fixed variable in baseball, and that is there are only three outs per inning. That’s what makes not making outs so important. And, right now, we are making a shitload of outs.

We are slugging like mad, at least, as we clock in almost in the middle there (considering our batting average, that’s quite a feat).  Until we start seeing more pitches and drawing more walks, the offense will under-perform.

Note: I started this post last (Sunday) night, but I was too exhausted to complete the sucker.  This is where I stopped, so I am going to cheat a bit going forward.

Pitching:

Now, I predict Roy will have a nicely solid start against the Padres Monday night, going seven innings with 6 Ks.  OK, maybe that’s too much cheating.  Anyway, it’s nice to have you back, Roy.  You were sorely missed.

Wandy?  Is that you?  He has been a total badass this year, but, sadly, he’ll be sitting out the next couple of weeks with a….strained groin.  The only words I hate typing more than “strained groin” are “anal fissures.”  Well, the latter is actually kinda fun.  I mean, how often do you get to type “anal” in a baseball blog that’s not about Barry Bonds?

Shawn Chacon has been on fire, as well.  But, he scares me.  His current BA against is .220 while his career mark is .259, and he’s been at .272 and .265 the last two seasons.  We can expect regression to the mean here.  If he can cut back on his walks, though, he could make up for the BA against rate hike.  Still, a pleasant surprise.

All 41 years of Doug Brocail is having a career year.  He picked up a save earlier in the week, but he’s far more valuable in his current role than he his collecting those shiny round objects known as saves.  My biggest worry, and you’ve heard this before, is that he’s on a pace to pitch in 80+ games.  We’re starting to move past the whole small sample size factor on this, and at 41 yo, this pace is simply untenable.

Geoff Geary (wha???) and Wesley Wright have both done yeoman’s work in middle relief.  Wright may turn out to be the best Rule V pickup this year.  With a little more control, he really could be something special.

Dave Borkowski, Brandon Backe, Brian “Scuffy” Moehler, and Chris Sampson all have WHIPs above 1.7.  Moehler and Sampson are scary, Backe is basically rehabbing from Tommy John surgery in the majors, and, I swear, Borkowski means “pour gasoline on fire” in Polish.

Jose Valverde?  Watching him pitch reminds me of this:

(Stolen without permission from this awesome post from USS Mariner).

The hometown heroes are 9-12 after this evening’s drubbing of the Pa-dregs.  That’s a pace for a 69-93 record.  I still believe that our season hinges on Roy’s health: tonight’s start gives the much used pen a needed rest.  I’m worried about the workload the pen is having to take.

And that’s all I’ve got to say about that.  HAPPY ANAL FISSURES TO YOU ALL!!!

Jose de Jesus Ortiz, quite possibly the only chron writer who doesn’t make me physically ill (and I rather enjoy him, actually), reports today that Miguel Tejada, that beacon of righteousness, is a big fat liar. OK, perhaps I’m being harsh (duh!). I do agree with Ortiz’ blog-based sentiment that, perhaps, lying wasn’t such a bad thing. And, all of his legal documents show his correct age. However, this should have all been cleared up many years ago, at least by the Age-Gate controversy, but it wasn’t.

In one of my first posts on this nascent blog, I expressed doubt about Tejada’s age. Doubts as to Tejada’s age have been around for several years. Considering the normal peak for hitters is between 26-30 years old, adding two years to his age makes his career path follow historical patterns more closely.

So what? Blah blah blah, bfd, you calloused old under-sexed alcoholic bitter old MF, what does this mean to me?

To put it in perspective, instead of having him tied up over his age 32 and 33 seasons, it’s now his 34 and 35 seasons. And, now that we are in the post-roid era, we’ll have a more normal player production curve. Offensively, we know that players have a tendency to tail off after their age 32 season.

Last year was Tejada’s lowest OPS since his 2001 season, but he also showed a considerable power drop-off. Adding two years means that this is more likely a trend - the declining numbers - than it was a statistical variance.

Finally, let me add that Ed Wade deserves even more scrutiny after this deal. Pulling the trigger the day before the Mitchell Report, and then likely knowing Tejada’s correct age, is poor management. You can try to convince me otherwise, but good luck. It was this deal that soured me on the Stros’ hopes for the season, and now I’m closer to flat-out pissed.

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In today’s action, the Astros staff gave up four HRs in an ugly effort today. Miggy celebrated his pair of birthday’s today by homering, as well. I wonder if he gets two cakes?

Wednesday nights are tough for me - it’s an important family night - so I didn’t get to see the game yesterday. But how nice was it to see some goose eggs on Roy’s linescore? The Phillies, even without Rollins, are a solid offensive squad. Yesterday’s outing was a boost for me (and, you know, it’s really all about me).

Edit: Nate Silver re-ran Tejada’s PECOTA projections after adding on two years (sub required).  The take away is that there is not a huge difference in his 2008 numbers - though it’s not statistically insignificant, but the new age lowers his overall value 40% from here on out.  That’s the performance curve drop-off I talk about above.

With today’s win, the Stros are 5-8. Wandy thinks he’s Sandy Koufax, which is all good, but there’s still something wrong with Roy. So, after a little hiatus from the blog, here’s this week’s edition of Rights and Wrongs.

Rights: Offense:

Lance: Oh yeah, no first half power slump for the man this year. And, just to prove he doesn’t have old player’s skills, he has 3 SBs, as well.

Tejada: Who knew? Except for everybody but me. I am still extremely skeptical of his ability to produce, but he’s making me look like a total dumbass…which is fine.

JR Towles: He could be here under the premise of “Not Brad Assmass” alone, but he hit his 3rd bomb of the season today and drew his 6th walk. The average may suck, but that doesn’t really matter when you are hitting for power and drawing walks.

Carlos Lee: Three bombs to start the year. Yummy.

Pitching:

Wandy: Wow. I kinda called this one, based on his K-rate spike last year, but he has been outstanding this year. In addition, he’s going deeper into games. He’s had some helpful matchups, but this start has the smell of legitimacy.

Wrongs: Offense:

Hunter Pence: Nuf ced.

Michael Bourn: OK, my bad: I jinxed him. After seeing some considerable improvement in his offensive game, he had a crappy week. Frankly, I think I know part of the problem: he’s the most dead-red hitter I’ve seen since Vinny Castilla. If it ain’t a fastball, he can’t touch it. The 2 XBH in 42 ABs doesn’t give me warm fuzzies, either.

“Proven Hitters” Loretta, Wiggington, and Erstad: Loretta was once a good hitter, but he’s pretty much done. Erstad and Wiggington never were good hitters, and they are getting too many ABs.

Pitching:

Backe: What? How can I say that a guy with a 2.25 ERA is a Wrong? For the simple fact that his PeripheralERA is a lot closer to 6.00 than 2.25.

Chacon: More BB than K. I know it’s only two starts, but there’s no reason to expect that ratio to change.

Roy: Wow. 30 HA in 16 IP. 5 HR. After getting ripped by the Marlins (the MF MARLINS!!!) on Friday, it’s officially time to panic.

Summary: You may think I’m seeing the 5-8 record half empty, and you’re right. Here’s what I see (all stats through Saturday).

Our offense is 3rd to last in AVG, 2nd to last in OBP, and 11th in SLG. In other words, we really are a slow-pitch softball team with a bunch of guys too fat to run all the way to first in a sprint (like me!).

As for pitching, we’ve given up the most hits, we’re second to last in WHIP, and we are in the lower half in ERA. What that says to me is that we still have a considerable way to go to catch up with our WHIP, which means we look worse in runs given up. AND, considering the relation between hits and defense, we really may not improve in this area.

I guess I’m kinda hard-wired to not be overly optimistic. I tend to look at things from an objective viewpoint. And, right now, I see a pretty shitty team, and I see no reason to think that extending our 5-8 start to a 100-loss season is unreasonable.

St. Louis Cardinals (5-1) @ Houston Astros (2-5)

Round 1:

Todd Wellemeyer (1-0) 

v.

Wandy Rodriguez (0-0)

Well, it sure didn’t take long for all of us to jump into our first series match-up since we started this here thing we call WTP.  Luckily for me, I have the advantage of being able to gloat just a little as our teams sit at opposite ends of the NL Central standings going into tonight’s game.  5-1?!?  WOW!  What a start!  Yes, as I stated here, I truly believed that these Cardinals would fair much better than what most of the so-called experts were predicting–mainly because I believed that Rick Ankiel’s hitting from last year was no fluke, thought our middle infield would fair far better as a whole (y’all don’t realize the intense hatred I had for that little league “shortstop” we carried for far too long), still thought we had the best bullpen in the division, and really loved the way we competed and won game after game to close out Spring Training.  But this?!?  The best starting pitching in the league after Week 1?!?  Granted, it’s only Week 1 and the starters will eventually come back to earth, not to mention we had the luxury of opening our season at Busch II, but I certainly could not have dreamed of a better start to the ‘08 campaign. 

So, other than the phenomenal performances turned in by this makeshift rotation, who else has impressed?  Obviously, it’s Rick Ankiel.  This mancrush is just getting out of hand now.  The guy just continues to come up big in clutch situations, hit for power, and his success versus lefties is something that I didn’t see coming.  His outfield defense has even been far better than first advertised; his catch in the 8th inning yesterday was Jimmy Edmonds-esque (minus the bad first step).  Adam Kennedy, at least so far, looks much more like the guy that played in Anaheim, er, Los Angeles, er whateverthefuck (as opposed to the assclown that showed up last year).  Kyle McClellan, the local St. Louis product, is proving to have a lot of grit and guts coming out of the ‘pen as he offsets not having Russ Springer down there with Ryan Franklin setting up for Izzy.  And Brian Barton, the Rule 5 castaway from Matty’s Indians, has continued to hit and may have even bumped Skip Schumaker from the leadoff and starting outfield spot.  Hell, LaRussa even went with the same exact line-up yesterday that he used the day before!  All this Redbird talk and I didn’t even have to mention that Pujols guy.  Amazing stuff so far!

**Update: Troy Glaus is still a big flappin’ pussy, but at least he’s turned in some decent glove work the past two games. 

So, what’s up with those Stros besides injuries to Berkman and Wigginton, being completely owned by Derek Lee over the weekend, and Your Boy Roy giving up 21 hits in his first two starts?  The one-run losses have to be frustrating–looks like you guys have been in every game this year.  Any anal fissures updates?  Tejada is actually lookin’ good out there for ya.

RoyO on the mound, up 5-2 against the fuzzy Cubbies.  Put it on the board, right?

Not so much.

As Triple347 mentioned, something doesn’t look quite right with Roy.  For me, it wasn’t as much the lack of velocity on his fastball as it was the lack of snap on the slider.  Specifically, in an AB with Geovany Soto, Roy threw three straight sliders that were 84, lazy, and far off the mark.

And Roy didn’t get much help, either.   Oscar, Wright, and Geary couldn’t get an out until three more runs scored, allowing all of their inherited runners to score in the process.  No es bueno.  And if there is something wrong with Roy, who really is our only pitcher capable of giving the pen a rest, then we are going to have even bigger issues with our relievers.  In other words, it’ll be a cascade of shit effect.

Dearest Brad Ausmus: You had a hard time with Oswalt’s stuff yesterday, and the stuff wasn’t that good.  It’s time to start that modeling job, my friend.  Thanks for the weak OPS and all, and you can keep the stool sample, but it’s time.  Kthxbye!

Today, it’s Brandon Backe versus Carlos Zambrano, a matchup that definitely favors the Cubs.  Between the Rocks and Stros, it’s hard to tell who Zambrano owns the most.  Against us, he’s 10-6 with a 2.65 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .193 batting average against, all well below his career numbers.  Meanwhile, against the Cubs, Backe is 2-1, 4.97 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and .292 BAA.  On paper, it’s a mismatch.

Well, at least we aren’t Detroit Tigers fans.  And is anybody else getting some schadenfraude out of their sucky start?

If you’re looking for a fun team to root for this year, you might want to consider the Rays.  They’re a young team and fun to watch.

Finally, a little farm news.  Bud Norris, who is one of the few decent arms we have on the farm, struck out 8 in his Corpus Christi (AA) debut.  Right now, he doesn’t profile as more than a back-end starter, but that’s an encouraging debut.  He’s already 23, and we skipped him past high-A this year, so at least we are fast-tracking him to see what he can do against similarly-aged competition.