Dave “Molotov Cocktail” Borkowski was released today to make room for Wandy.

And, lest you feel too sorry for him, he made $575K last year and will make $800K this year.

There’s a good chance he’ll clear waivers, but there’s no word on whether he’ll accept an assignment to Round Rock.

Source: rotoworld.com

In the last Rights and Wrongs, Casey mentioned, more delicately than I, that my harshness of Tejada is undeserved and that we are better off with him than we were with what we gave up.  I hope to revisit this shortly, but I still think the Tejada trade is going to come back to haunt us, but I also understand this is my admitted bias against Tejada and my belief he’s over-rated.  Anyway, to the pitchers…

Roy Oswalt, 5.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP (numbers from 5/1 - 5/18)  - Undoubtedly, Roy is doing considerably better, but he’s still struggling.  His harsh start against the Rangers tweaked his numbers during the hot streak, but he is still getting hit at a high rate for him.  We are not yet two months through the season, and we aren’t yet seeing attrition problems in the pen.  We still need Roy to pick it up as I still think he’s our staff’s only hope to keep us healthy.

Brandon Backe, 4.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP - About the same numbers that Roy is putting up, but Backe is doing something he’s never done before: he’s striking people out.  His control, or lack thereof, is probably helping increase his K rate, but if he can keep that rate and lower his atrocious walk rate even 1BB/9IP, he’ll be the poster child for Tommy John quick recoveries.

Jose Valverde, 0.00 ERA, .50 WHIP - Dear bfd, you suck.  Love, Jose.  After struggling for the first three weeks of the season, Valverde has walked only one over his past 11 IP, and he’s been almost unhittable in the meantime.

Geoff Geary, 0.00 ERA, .95 WHIP - Geary has been a solid pickup so far and has been hot over the streak.  Of course, he now has a strained groin and will miss some time.

Brian “Scuffy” Moehler,  2.70 ERA, 1.40 WHIP - He pitched well in a couple of spot starts, and he’s about the most WYSIWYG pitcher in the majors aside from Paul Byrd: good control, lots of hits against, and the occasional foreign substance (and, no, that wouldn’t be Matsui’s anal fissure salve).  Scuffy was hit harder in his last start, which will be a trend as he goes around the league and they see more pitches off him.

Doug Brocail, 4.32 ERA, 1.08 WHIP - Still pitching very well, but still on a pace to appear in over half our games.  It’s guys like Brocail and and Geary and Wright that most worry me about being over-used.

Chris Sampson, 5.51 ERA, 1.53 WHIP - Pitching slightly better - especially if it’s against the Cubs or Dodgers - but it’s time to find a replacement for him.

Shawn Chacon, 6.06 ERA, 1.86 WHIP - Chacon was extraordinarily lucky in the early going with his batting average on balls in play as regression to the mean and his poor control have come back to bite him on the ass.

Wesley Wright, 4.26 EAR, 1.74 WHIP - Most importantly, a 5 BB to 2 K ratio during the streak.

Leaving off Molotov Borkowski and Fernando Nieve for expediency reasons.

Overall, outside of Backe, a little Roy, Brocail, and Jose, our pitching has been very mediocre.  If there is one reason for our streak - and this should be of no surprise, it’s Puma.  His bat is so hot that he is literally carrying this team right now.  Matsui and Pence are adding a ton to the mix, and Lee and Tejada are in the picture, but this is all about Puma.

Because we have nothing on the farm, we should be focused on making a trade to pick up at least one, if not two, starting pitchers.  Wandy will be back soon as he has a rehab start in Corpus tomorrow, but we simply must replace Chacon and Sampson if we are to compete.  We can’t ride Puma’s coattails all season, but we will need to rely more on our pitching at some point.

Title in honor of Edward Lorenz.

Ed Wade took over as GM of the Astros in September 2007. From points raised in the Lying Liar discussion, let’s take a quick look at some of deals he’s pulled off, specifically, those that have a Miggy Tejada-esque impact (Caveat: I think we can safely assume that Drayton is one of the most meddling owners in baseball, so this needs to be considered when appraising GM performance).

11/7/07 - Acquired OF Michael Bourn, nonroster 3B Michael Costanzo and RHP Geoff Geary from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Brad Lidge and SS Eric Bruntlett.

• Bourn has been Bourn: good speed, lots of SBs, and good D. His 697 OPS is Kaz Matsu-esque, though. In other words, he’s like Assmass with speed in CF.
• Michael Costanzo: Became part of the Tejada deal. Struggling to make contact in AAA, and a B/B- level prospect.
• Geoff Geary: Has been solid this year, though his BABIP (Batting average balls in play) is entirely unsustainable. Still, he’s been one of our better RPs this year.
• Brad Lidge: Injured, struggling with control, but he’s got a pair of saves and a 0 ERA.
• Eric Bruntlett: Has seen a lot of action thanks to Jimmy Rollins’ injury, which over-exposes him. One of the better utility infielders in the game, and somebody I was sad to see go.

11/16/07 - Acquired RHP Oscar Villarreal from the Braves in exchange for OF Josh Anderson

• Oscar: I really thought this would be Wade’s best deal, but Villareal is looking old and used. I expect some regression to the mean (so he gets better), but that Villareal has seen action in half our games is not a positive sign.
• Josh Anderson is Michael Bourn with less stick.

12/2/07 - Signed free agent 2B Kazuo Matsui to a three-year contract.

• I have not hidden my contempt for this deal. Signing a 32-yo 2b to a 3-year deal who has never hit outside of Coors Field - literally - is disastrous on so many levels. Kaz is due to make his Astros debut tonight.

12/12/07 - Acquired SS Miguel Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for OF Luke Scott, RHP Matt Albers, LHP Troy Patton, RHP Dennis Sarfate and 3B Mike Costanzo; Claimed RHP Ryan Houston off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays; Did not offer a 2008 contract to SS Adam Everett, making him a free agent.

• Tejeda is playing like he’s 25, though he’s really 34.
• Luke Scott: Scott scuffled horribly in the 1st half of 2007, but he put up a 978 OPS in the 2nd half. This year, he’s at 1.056. You shouldn’t be surprised.
• Albers: Was one of my favorite pitchers to watch last year thanks to his 95 MPH fastball that darted. He was pretty awful in 2007, but he’s been outstanding in the early going in Baltimore. I think he’s a legit #2 or #3 starter with his stuff.
• Troy Patton: dead.
• Sarate was outstanding for us at the end of 2007, but he has struggled with Baltimore.
• Costanzo, again, has struggled for contact.

12/14/07 - Acquired RHP Jose Valverde from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for INF Chris Burke and RHP Juan Gutierrez and RHP Chad Qualls.

• Jose Valverde: The Latino Lidge (except that, you know, Lidge has been good)
• Chris Burke: Has been awful in a utility role, that I do not think suits him.
• Gutierrez: Especially considering park context, he has been a very solid starter for the Tucson Sidewinders. Still no more than a #3 or #4 starter, but he’s got some potential.
• Qualls: Same as it ever was with Qualls, who is still one of the top middle relievers in the game. Has also picked up a save to go with that 0 ERA.

So, what’s been the effect?

IF: Gaining Tejada and Matsui > losing Burke, Bruntlett, and Adam Everett. Signing Matsui made Burke expendable, and Everett was canned after the Tejada deal. However, we took on about $15MM in salary with this exchange, so it did come with a substantial opportunity cost on the rest of the roster. Still, an easy win.

OF: Losing Scott, Anderson > gaining Bourn. Sorry, but this is pretty easy. Yes, we do gain team speed and, obviously, we get better D in CF. But, this isn’t enough to off-set the difference in runs produced between Scott and Bourn. It was the Lidge trade that made Scott available.

SP: Losing Gutierrez, Albers, Patton > well, nothing. Huge losses here. One can say, wait, we signed Shawn Chacon! We could’ve signed Chacon regardless. Even with Patton’s injury, we do not have two arms like Gutierrez and Albers outside of Nieve. Tremendously adverse impact on our depth.

RP: Losing Lidge, Qualls, Sarfate > gaining Geary, Valverde, Villareal. Lidge is, and will be, better than Valverde. One can talk about how Lidge was necessary to get Bourn, but I don’t think that deal was positive. Villareal makes it close, but the dude has got to keep the ball in the yard.

Summary: Yes, we got a helluva lot better offensively at SS and defensively at 2b, but at what price? Our OF is weaker, out pitching is thinner, and our relievers are explosive. Sure, one *could* say we did a heckuva job shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic, but I still believe these moves mean a net negative.

It’s not even three weeks into the season, though, and I am just some damn blogger in his mother’s basement who doesn’t really enjoy baseball because I look at stats (this has a point).

Source for trade info: mlb.com

Note: The format came out kinda funky. If this bothers you, please let me know.

This is the first in a non-probable series about the Stros, looking at what’s going right and what’s going wrong. Since it’s only the first four games of the season, the usual small sample size caveats apply.

Rights:

1. The relief pitching. Well, Oscar Villareal and Geoff Geary, at least. But, it’s also kind of on the “Wrongs” side as, in the first four games, they have combined for 6 IP. It’s improbable to expect that Geary throws 81 effective innings, and over-use is what got Villareal hurt the first time around, and he’s on a pace for 162 IP. Again, the usual small sample size blah blah blah applies, but one of my biggest fears is that Coop over-relies on Villareal and somebody else (in this case, Geary), and they wind up getting hurt. But, if I were Coop, I’d be scared to hand the ball to Molotov Borkowski and Scuffy Moehler , as well, so I don’t know what the answer is except for whiplash treatment.

2. Lance Berkman. Mentioned a couple of times already, but the fact he’s hitting for power early has to be a huge confidence boost and a sign he’ll eclipse is PECOTA projected OPS of .900.

3. Micheal Bourn. Hopefully, I didn’t jinx the poor guy, but I like that he’s drawing walks.

4. The fielding. No errors? Seriously? Is there a problem with the stat feed? No?

Wrongs:

1. The pitching outside of Shawn Chacon, Oscar, and Geoff. The Mets got to play the Marlins, so they kinda don’t count. But which team has the second highest OPS heading into the weekend series? The Padres. Their home park didn’t suppress their numbers one bit. That the Stros wound up with a team ERA of 4.09 is more a matter of luck than effective pitching (the Padres lead the league with 37 LOB), and when you consider that our team ERA in 2007 was 4.68, there’s some additional regressing to do.

2. The hitting outside of Lance. Obviously, we can expect some regression toward a decent offensive squad, and the Pads have some tough pitchers, but the first series was a serious disappointment.

Facing Jake Peavy at San Diego was a tough way to start the season, but we struggled against a pretty marginal offense, which is disturbing.

We open against the Cubs today (in about 20 minutes, in fact). Chris Sampson goes against Rich Hill today, Roy faces Jason Marquis (stifles snicker) on Saturday, and the finale sees Brandon Backe dual with Carlos Zambrano, who is still the only pitcher I’ve heard of get injured while wanking.

The attempt at live-blogging didn’t go off so well. I learned that it’s a helluva lot easier to blog when you aren’t being social at the same time. Oh well.

Some completely random and quick Opening Day thoughts (The Man has me on a huge hamster wheel today):

* Dear Pirates: Trade Xavier Nady now. He serves no purpose on your team, and his value will never be higher.

* What vaunted offense? Jake Peavy shut down the Astros easily. Sure, that’s a tough assignment for any team, but I just don’t think the offense will be nearly as tough as thought. Add on that we are extremely right-handed heavy, I think we’ll be especially ineffective against righties. Oh, and Ass-mass got the start. Well done, Coop, well done.

* DisplacedTexan and Nash both mentioned Eric Gagne and Kerry Wood imploding, which was definitely fun. But here’s the difference between good roster management and player development than not.

- Home-grown Carlos Marmol whiffed three of the four batters he faced. Even though he took the loss, Bob Howry can close, and Michael Wuertz has closer stuff. Wood may not hold on to the closer role, but there’s three legit backups if he falters.

- Milwaukee can fall back on David Riske and Derrick Turnbow, both of whom have previously closed.

- So, what happens if Valverde gets hurt? Who becomes the Stros closer? Doug Brocail? Shawn Chacon? Oscar Villareal? Joe Sambito??? Crap.

So, I decided to take a different route with this after Part I, the offense. There’s a ton to look at, and I want to be as exhaustive (boring) as possible. Now, I’ll take a look at the pitching. You’ll find your barf bag in the seat back in front of you. There are no emergency exits.

Now that “Got bomb?” Williams has been sliced off the roster, we actually look better…which is sad. Let’s start with the good news: Roy Oswalt. And is there a more steady pitcher in the majors than Oswalt? I would argue long and hard (heheheh, long….hard…heheheheh) that the answer is no. He might be 31 this year, and he might not have the giddyup on his fastball he once did, but he’s the working definition of ruthlessly efficient. He’s got some groinal issues (as does most of the WTP staff), but he’ll be good for 33 above-average starts. Not bad for a short, right handed pitcher.

That ends the good news.

Jose Valverde is ranked second for VORP for the Astros staff by PECOTA. The entire staff. The closer. Oh, we are so screwed. Anyway, Wade acquired Valverde because he comes with that shiny closer smell, but we gave up a shitload of schwag to do so. Valverde saved 47 games last year, but his pitching pattern reminds me of Bob Knepper: one good year, one bad year, one good year, one bad year, and so on. That’s not to say he’ll be bad this year, but I don’t trust pitchers like this any farther than I can throw them (and Valverde is a serious fat ass). I have this suspicion that Valverde will be Wade’s legacy.

Next is Oscar Villareal, who is the best acquisition we made in off-season. He’s bounced back well from a serious abuse episode with the D-backs, and he could easily be the second best pitcher on the team next year. If he pitches better than he has in the spring. But, remember, this dude is a middle reliever.

Jeez, I am three pitchers in and ready to down a gallon of bleach. Speaking of bleach, next up is Wandy. There were some seriously intriguing, yet confusing, numbers from Wandy last year. His K-rate spiked, which is a fantastic indicator, but I can’t figure out why. He did look better, especially with his curve and change. If his numbers are for real, then he’ll beat his PECOTA numbers, but that’s a big if. Nevertheless, he showed a ton of improvement in 2007.

So, that’s two starters and two relievers. There are eight more guys to go, but I can’t do it. The rest that made the 25-man roster are Shawn Chacon (bombastic!), Brandon Backe (not a joke), Dave “Molotov cocktail” Borkowski, Doug Brocail and his 13.00 ERA in the spring, Geoff “ROOGY” Geary, Chris Sampson (and his 9+ spring ERA), Brian “Scuffy” Moehler (nuf ced), and Rule V pickup Wesley Wright.

Excluding Oswalt, our pitchers were good for a 7.16 ERA and a 7.72 RA in the spring, and we don’t train in Arizona. That, my friends, wouldn’t even make the 1930 Phillies proud.

This might be the worst pitching staff, including Oswalt, in my lifetime. We are that bad. Right now, PECOTA has us giving up 813 runs, but I think that total could be closer to 900 than not. I think the pitching is truly that bad, and when you consider that we have nothing on the farm to call up, it could get even uglier.

In the next instalment, I’ll look at our farm and intangibles.

Edit: Thanks to the Crawfish Boxes for info on the 25-man roster. Sorry for the dis the first time around.