Remember when I wrote this post and everybody thought I was being too harsh on the offense? Well…

Name, Projected OPS, Reality, +/- OPS (+ is good)

Michael Bourn, 700, 577, -123

Carlos Lee, 849, 794, -55

Miguel Tejada, 796, 814, +18

Kaz Matsui, 682, 679, -3

Ty Wiggington, 813, 800, -13

Brad Ausmus, 597, 447, -150

Hunter Pence, 852, 808, -44

Lance Berkman, 901, 1.219, +318

This isn’t everybody, but we can draw two fairly plausible conclusions:

1. PECOTA has been pretty dead-on-balls accurate.

2. Puma = God.

This little exercise was just for fun. I’ll be re-visiting this topic a couple of times over the course of the season.

Edit: Fixed my error (h/t Lee), and changed the title to better reflect article content.

5/30 Recap: Well, it looks like I was a little too prescient.  Backe gave up three bombs in just 5IP, and our top three hitters went a combined 1-14 with 4 Ks.  Bourn, all by his bad self, left five on base.  If we are going to continue to get Bourn the most PAs on the team, then we deserve to lose ignominiously.  I think Bourn has proven he can’t handle the lead-off spot.  Matsui is down to a 685 OPS, and his OBP is down to .347.

5/31 Quick Preview: The Stros have a tough match-up today with Scuffy Moehler going against Ben Sheets, who has been one of the best pitchers in the league this year.  Puma has an 1100+ OPS off Sheets, and Matsui and Pence have well off him, as well.  In only 5 PAs, Tejada has struggled.  Scuffy has done well for us so far this year, and he’ll need to going against Sheets today.

Yes, I suck. I suck like a Hoover. I suck like that guy in the bathroom at the Brazos River Bar. I suck like…wait, what did I just say? DAMMIT!

Sorry I’ve been away. Some stuff going on in personal life, plus some other haps. So, yeah, sorry. Hopefully, this’ll kick off a new, on-going round of love for the blog.

So, I’ve missed quite a bit, haven’t I? The Stros are 12-4 so far in May, making my projections for eminent doom completely irrational and asshole-y, at best. Oops.

So, let’s catch me up on what’s been going on. How have we been doing it in May? Let’s look at it position by position:

CA - JR Towles - 33 AB, 204 OPS. Brad Ausmus - 25 AB, 707 OPS.
OK, ummmm, we aren’t doing it here, that’s for sure. Towles has been in a horrendous slump, though he did double yesterday. Most worrisome is the increase in his K-rate. And, even through the slump, Towles still has a higher season OPS than does Ausmus (585 vs. 570). Normally, I’m completely for letting a youngster hit his way out of a slump, but this is pretty bad. The more Ausmus plays, though, the worse off we are. For now, we need to start getting Towles more plate appearances against weaker pitchers to get his confidence higher.

1B - Lance “Puma” Berkman - 62 AB, 1690 OPS. No, that’s not a typo: .625 OBP and 1.065 SLG.
Just wow. I mean, what can you really say? I’m almost 40 years old, and I’ve seen a lot of ball over my time. Lance is playing slo-pitch softball against the league right now. And it ain’t no restricted flight ball, either. I can’t remember a hot streak like this for this long. Enjoy it while it lasts.

2B - Kaz Matsui - 60 AB, 871 OPS.
Kaz is doing something he’s never done before: he’s drawing walks at a prodigious pace with 17 in 110 ABs. OK, maybe not prodigious, exactly, but that’s more than double his career rate. Most importantly, he’s getting on base in front of Puma.

3B - Ty “Whiff” Wiggington - 45 AB, 547 OPS.
And to think we actually purposefully traded for this guy, a trade I still don’t understand today. I wonder if Ian Stewart of the Rockies is available? Or do we go straight for Garret Atkins? Regardless, we’ve got to do something here. This just in: Geoff Blum isn’t the answer, either.

SS - Miggy Tejada - 67 ABs, 814 OPS
Does the OPS number surprise you for a guy with a .343 average in May? In fact, his average makes up almost his entire OPS number, which is pretty scary. He only has four doubles and one HR on the month to go with a solitary walk in 67 ABs. I know most people would disagree, but I still do not like the trade that brought Tejada over. After his torrid April start, when considering his defense, he has been barely passable. Yes, this is a harsh assessment but one I am sticking by.

OF - Hunter Pence - 59 ABs, 986 OPS. Carlos Lee - 64 ABs, 878 OPS. Michael Bourn - 66 ABs, 463 OPS. Darrin Erstad - 21 ABs, 1000 OPS.
Hunter and Kaz must be hanging out together as Hunter’s walk rate has jumped, as well. Seven walks in 59 ABs in May ain’t so-ohmigod-totally-awesome, but it’s acceptable. I’ve been saying for a long time that the key to Hunter’s evolution to being a starter quality OF was his grasp of the strike-zone. I love seeing this improvement.

Carlos Lee - Ummmm, yep. This is precisely what Carlos Lee does.

Bourn has been execrable over May, and his walk rate has plummeted while his K rate has soared. Seems that pitchers have learned that a quality pitch in the zone is good enough to get him out, and it’s working. This was my worry with Bourn. He simply has to get stronger and start being at least a threat with the bat before he starts seeing more pitches out of the zone.

I thought I would never say this, but it’s time to get Erstad ABs over Bourn. We’ve got to ride Puma while he’s hot, and Bourn is making way too many outs while Coop hard-headedly leaves him in the leadoff spot.

I’m gonna take a break and hit the pitchers next. WHEE!!!

Title in honor of Edward Lorenz.

Ed Wade took over as GM of the Astros in September 2007. From points raised in the Lying Liar discussion, let’s take a quick look at some of deals he’s pulled off, specifically, those that have a Miggy Tejada-esque impact (Caveat: I think we can safely assume that Drayton is one of the most meddling owners in baseball, so this needs to be considered when appraising GM performance).

11/7/07 - Acquired OF Michael Bourn, nonroster 3B Michael Costanzo and RHP Geoff Geary from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Brad Lidge and SS Eric Bruntlett.

• Bourn has been Bourn: good speed, lots of SBs, and good D. His 697 OPS is Kaz Matsu-esque, though. In other words, he’s like Assmass with speed in CF.
• Michael Costanzo: Became part of the Tejada deal. Struggling to make contact in AAA, and a B/B- level prospect.
• Geoff Geary: Has been solid this year, though his BABIP (Batting average balls in play) is entirely unsustainable. Still, he’s been one of our better RPs this year.
• Brad Lidge: Injured, struggling with control, but he’s got a pair of saves and a 0 ERA.
• Eric Bruntlett: Has seen a lot of action thanks to Jimmy Rollins’ injury, which over-exposes him. One of the better utility infielders in the game, and somebody I was sad to see go.

11/16/07 - Acquired RHP Oscar Villarreal from the Braves in exchange for OF Josh Anderson

• Oscar: I really thought this would be Wade’s best deal, but Villareal is looking old and used. I expect some regression to the mean (so he gets better), but that Villareal has seen action in half our games is not a positive sign.
• Josh Anderson is Michael Bourn with less stick.

12/2/07 - Signed free agent 2B Kazuo Matsui to a three-year contract.

• I have not hidden my contempt for this deal. Signing a 32-yo 2b to a 3-year deal who has never hit outside of Coors Field - literally - is disastrous on so many levels. Kaz is due to make his Astros debut tonight.

12/12/07 - Acquired SS Miguel Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for OF Luke Scott, RHP Matt Albers, LHP Troy Patton, RHP Dennis Sarfate and 3B Mike Costanzo; Claimed RHP Ryan Houston off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays; Did not offer a 2008 contract to SS Adam Everett, making him a free agent.

• Tejeda is playing like he’s 25, though he’s really 34.
• Luke Scott: Scott scuffled horribly in the 1st half of 2007, but he put up a 978 OPS in the 2nd half. This year, he’s at 1.056. You shouldn’t be surprised.
• Albers: Was one of my favorite pitchers to watch last year thanks to his 95 MPH fastball that darted. He was pretty awful in 2007, but he’s been outstanding in the early going in Baltimore. I think he’s a legit #2 or #3 starter with his stuff.
• Troy Patton: dead.
• Sarate was outstanding for us at the end of 2007, but he has struggled with Baltimore.
• Costanzo, again, has struggled for contact.

12/14/07 - Acquired RHP Jose Valverde from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for INF Chris Burke and RHP Juan Gutierrez and RHP Chad Qualls.

• Jose Valverde: The Latino Lidge (except that, you know, Lidge has been good)
• Chris Burke: Has been awful in a utility role, that I do not think suits him.
• Gutierrez: Especially considering park context, he has been a very solid starter for the Tucson Sidewinders. Still no more than a #3 or #4 starter, but he’s got some potential.
• Qualls: Same as it ever was with Qualls, who is still one of the top middle relievers in the game. Has also picked up a save to go with that 0 ERA.

So, what’s been the effect?

IF: Gaining Tejada and Matsui > losing Burke, Bruntlett, and Adam Everett. Signing Matsui made Burke expendable, and Everett was canned after the Tejada deal. However, we took on about $15MM in salary with this exchange, so it did come with a substantial opportunity cost on the rest of the roster. Still, an easy win.

OF: Losing Scott, Anderson > gaining Bourn. Sorry, but this is pretty easy. Yes, we do gain team speed and, obviously, we get better D in CF. But, this isn’t enough to off-set the difference in runs produced between Scott and Bourn. It was the Lidge trade that made Scott available.

SP: Losing Gutierrez, Albers, Patton > well, nothing. Huge losses here. One can say, wait, we signed Shawn Chacon! We could’ve signed Chacon regardless. Even with Patton’s injury, we do not have two arms like Gutierrez and Albers outside of Nieve. Tremendously adverse impact on our depth.

RP: Losing Lidge, Qualls, Sarfate > gaining Geary, Valverde, Villareal. Lidge is, and will be, better than Valverde. One can talk about how Lidge was necessary to get Bourn, but I don’t think that deal was positive. Villareal makes it close, but the dude has got to keep the ball in the yard.

Summary: Yes, we got a helluva lot better offensively at SS and defensively at 2b, but at what price? Our OF is weaker, out pitching is thinner, and our relievers are explosive. Sure, one *could* say we did a heckuva job shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic, but I still believe these moves mean a net negative.

It’s not even three weeks into the season, though, and I am just some damn blogger in his mother’s basement who doesn’t really enjoy baseball because I look at stats (this has a point).

Source for trade info: mlb.com

Note: The format came out kinda funky. If this bothers you, please let me know.

With today’s win, the Stros are 5-8. Wandy thinks he’s Sandy Koufax, which is all good, but there’s still something wrong with Roy. So, after a little hiatus from the blog, here’s this week’s edition of Rights and Wrongs.

Rights: Offense:

Lance: Oh yeah, no first half power slump for the man this year. And, just to prove he doesn’t have old player’s skills, he has 3 SBs, as well.

Tejada: Who knew? Except for everybody but me. I am still extremely skeptical of his ability to produce, but he’s making me look like a total dumbass…which is fine.

JR Towles: He could be here under the premise of “Not Brad Assmass” alone, but he hit his 3rd bomb of the season today and drew his 6th walk. The average may suck, but that doesn’t really matter when you are hitting for power and drawing walks.

Carlos Lee: Three bombs to start the year. Yummy.

Pitching:

Wandy: Wow. I kinda called this one, based on his K-rate spike last year, but he has been outstanding this year. In addition, he’s going deeper into games. He’s had some helpful matchups, but this start has the smell of legitimacy.

Wrongs: Offense:

Hunter Pence: Nuf ced.

Michael Bourn: OK, my bad: I jinxed him. After seeing some considerable improvement in his offensive game, he had a crappy week. Frankly, I think I know part of the problem: he’s the most dead-red hitter I’ve seen since Vinny Castilla. If it ain’t a fastball, he can’t touch it. The 2 XBH in 42 ABs doesn’t give me warm fuzzies, either.

“Proven Hitters” Loretta, Wiggington, and Erstad: Loretta was once a good hitter, but he’s pretty much done. Erstad and Wiggington never were good hitters, and they are getting too many ABs.

Pitching:

Backe: What? How can I say that a guy with a 2.25 ERA is a Wrong? For the simple fact that his PeripheralERA is a lot closer to 6.00 than 2.25.

Chacon: More BB than K. I know it’s only two starts, but there’s no reason to expect that ratio to change.

Roy: Wow. 30 HA in 16 IP. 5 HR. After getting ripped by the Marlins (the MF MARLINS!!!) on Friday, it’s officially time to panic.

Summary: You may think I’m seeing the 5-8 record half empty, and you’re right. Here’s what I see (all stats through Saturday).

Our offense is 3rd to last in AVG, 2nd to last in OBP, and 11th in SLG. In other words, we really are a slow-pitch softball team with a bunch of guys too fat to run all the way to first in a sprint (like me!).

As for pitching, we’ve given up the most hits, we’re second to last in WHIP, and we are in the lower half in ERA. What that says to me is that we still have a considerable way to go to catch up with our WHIP, which means we look worse in runs given up. AND, considering the relation between hits and defense, we really may not improve in this area.

I guess I’m kinda hard-wired to not be overly optimistic. I tend to look at things from an objective viewpoint. And, right now, I see a pretty shitty team, and I see no reason to think that extending our 5-8 start to a 100-loss season is unreasonable.

This is the first in a non-probable series about the Stros, looking at what’s going right and what’s going wrong. Since it’s only the first four games of the season, the usual small sample size caveats apply.

Rights:

1. The relief pitching. Well, Oscar Villareal and Geoff Geary, at least. But, it’s also kind of on the “Wrongs” side as, in the first four games, they have combined for 6 IP. It’s improbable to expect that Geary throws 81 effective innings, and over-use is what got Villareal hurt the first time around, and he’s on a pace for 162 IP. Again, the usual small sample size blah blah blah applies, but one of my biggest fears is that Coop over-relies on Villareal and somebody else (in this case, Geary), and they wind up getting hurt. But, if I were Coop, I’d be scared to hand the ball to Molotov Borkowski and Scuffy Moehler , as well, so I don’t know what the answer is except for whiplash treatment.

2. Lance Berkman. Mentioned a couple of times already, but the fact he’s hitting for power early has to be a huge confidence boost and a sign he’ll eclipse is PECOTA projected OPS of .900.

3. Micheal Bourn. Hopefully, I didn’t jinx the poor guy, but I like that he’s drawing walks.

4. The fielding. No errors? Seriously? Is there a problem with the stat feed? No?

Wrongs:

1. The pitching outside of Shawn Chacon, Oscar, and Geoff. The Mets got to play the Marlins, so they kinda don’t count. But which team has the second highest OPS heading into the weekend series? The Padres. Their home park didn’t suppress their numbers one bit. That the Stros wound up with a team ERA of 4.09 is more a matter of luck than effective pitching (the Padres lead the league with 37 LOB), and when you consider that our team ERA in 2007 was 4.68, there’s some additional regressing to do.

2. The hitting outside of Lance. Obviously, we can expect some regression toward a decent offensive squad, and the Pads have some tough pitchers, but the first series was a serious disappointment.

Facing Jake Peavy at San Diego was a tough way to start the season, but we struggled against a pretty marginal offense, which is disturbing.

We open against the Cubs today (in about 20 minutes, in fact). Chris Sampson goes against Rich Hill today, Roy faces Jason Marquis (stifles snicker) on Saturday, and the finale sees Brandon Backe dual with Carlos Zambrano, who is still the only pitcher I’ve heard of get injured while wanking.

It looks like I picked the wrong season to stop licking toads.

The Stros have started off 0-2, but there is one good to great sign of hope: Michael Bourn.

Now, even though the poor dude went to the University of Houston, which means he couldn’t read Everybody Poops phonetically, he is undoubtedly one fast dude.  AND, better yet, he has three walks in his first nine plate appearances (PA).  This is huge, and this, I believe, is what it will take for him to be an elite leadoff man.

Now, here’s the risk: NL pitchers figure out he can’t hit a bull on the ass with a bass fiddle, and they start pounding everything down the heart of the plate.  This, sadly, is a possible scenario.  But, if he can continue to draw walks at a high pace, about 20% of PAs, then we could have a special guy at the top of the order.

In the nascent days of this site, I was quickly outed as perhaps the only optimist about the Astros on our staff. Perhaps I’m delusional, driven mad by the Jose Cruz t-shirt that I’ve worn every day since September 14th, 1986, to the point that it’s difficult to see where I end and the shirt begins. That shirt went through puberty with me, and if that makes me crazy, then I don’t want to be sane. I do think that there’s a reasonable argument to be made that it won’t be ALL wailing and gnashing of teeth for the Stros this year, so allow me to put on my seersucker suit and straw hat and begin my soliloquy.

/tugs at lapels

I may not be a big city lawyer, folks. I may not have any fancy acronyms or statistics to reinforce my arguments, but I do know one thing: the Astros sure as hell aren’t the Pirates. And that’s something we can all be thankful for. Always think of folks less fortunate than yourself, that’s what my pappy always said, God rest his soul. Before you go to bed tonight, say a prayer for little Ian Snell; that boy can pitch some wildfire, but he may never be on a 75 win team. You think about that.

Lot of folks running around these days talking ’bout how the Astros ain’t got any pitching, and the offense has anal fissures, and the bullpen is two pieces of twine and Jose Valverde, and on the surface, you might be right about some of that. The anal fissures, to be sure.

/wipes forehead with monogrammed handkerchief

Shew. But let me tell you a few things about Ed Wade. See, Eddie ain’t too popular in Philadelphia, that’s for sure, and he’s starting to develop a reputation around these parts, too. But Eddie hasn’t been employed for this long around MLB by being dumb. Like it or not, the man had a plan, and he stuck to it. These Astros he’s brought in are fast, and good with the glove, and that was the stated off-season goal: speed and defense. Sometimes shit happens, like your lump-ass left fielder crushes the leg of the best defensive shortstop in baseball, and you have to let the rangy kid who couldn’t hit worth a damn but could make Gold Glove plays look routine go off to find himself in Minnesota. And while the guy you replace him with has a cannon for an arm (and a rocket for a bat), you’re gonna find yourself missing the ease that ol’ AE brought to the game.

But that’s the only exception to Eddie’s plan. Our little Oriental friend with the butt trouble, well, some say he’s a product of a high-altitude environment. Point to numbers, to PECOTA and OPS; well, I say PECOTA is a kind of veal, and OPS was an unheard hippity-hop song from 1990! You see, of course anyone’s road numbers in the NL West are going to look bad outside Coor’s; hell, every other stadium in that division (apart from Pac Bell) is a hitter’s nightmare. You try to have a road OPS over .900 when you play a large portion of your road games at Petco Park. Like my momma always said, you can’t catch a coon-hound with grease.

We never knew what the hell momma was saying half the time. Must’ve been all that time working in a lead paint factory that did it to her.

And let’s not forget the kids now! Kids are our future, our “hope” like that Osama guy likes to say. Hunter Pence! Now that’s a baseball player! So long as he doesn’t pop his damn fool head off diving over the right field railing to grab a foul ball, that boy’s gonna make men weep and women swoon (if they like guys with peanut heads) for years here. He may have a sophomore slump, but he’s no Luke Scott.

/ducks flying trash

Sorry folks, forgot the reaction that name gets. No, Pence’ll be a .300/30/90 badass before you know it, and he’ll steal him some bases, too. Speaking of stealing bases, I know there’s lots of you who talk about Wily Tavares like he was one step above crippled, what with his low OBP and whatnot, but that boy could disrupt a defense with his speed in ways that were a site to behold; well, Michael Bourn runs a 4.3 40. That’s NFL fast, and it’ll cause the same kind of hell that Wily T. did, and I will bet any man, woman, child or Chinaman that he’ll have a .390 OPS this season, since he seems to have gotten his free-swinging reputation in check this spring. Seriously, would you really like Lidge back, people?

Now, there ain’t much positive to say about the pitching. There just ain’t. I could tell you about little Wesley Wright, the 13-year old with the elastic arm who could become an eighth inning savior, but when that’s the silver lining in this pitching staff, well, that just about says it all. But I’d ask you to look at something before you say, “Them dumbasses Wade & Purpura traded all the studs on the farm for a flea-bit buncha mules”: let’s look at those studs.

• Jason Hirsh: less than 120 IP in 2007, 5-7 record, 4.81 ERA. Whee doggies! There’s a #2 starter!
• Taylor Bucholz : only 9 starts, mostly worked from the bullpen. Respectable-ish 1.33 WHIP.
• Troy Patton:

And everyone else is either a prospect or a reliever. So there’s really not a lick of good any of the pitchers we sent out of town could do for the 2008 team. Now, the future implications of this kind of thinning are pretty obvious, but I’m more concerned about the lack of position players in the minors right now; it looks like a damned goofball, feel-good comedy down there. When these “ancient” 32 year old offensive mainstays finally hang up their Twinkies and B12 and head home, who’s gonna replace THEM? Pitching prospects are a dime a dozen, but you have to pay bushels of money for a 35 homer-100 RBI slugger.

Well, I best wrap this up. Daisy’ll be calling me from the front porch for a pitcher of lemonade and a basket of her fried chicken. I swear, if I find any of those hard-to-eat thighs in there, I’m gonna beat that woman black and blue. But you need not be blue your own self: these Astros may lose, and they may lose a lot, but they’re gonna win about 77-82 games or so, and they’re gonna be a helluva lot of fun to watch when they’re hitting on all cylinders. Just you trust an old country lawyer on that one, y’hear?